Cold Line Builder

Your build, the Cold Line, and the market

The build is only interesting next to something. The summary rail carries the market on top and the Cold Line under it, market by market, with the edge on each one — moneyline, run line, total. Then it says in a sentence which side owns the colder number and by how much your dials moved it.

That second panel is the part a pick sheet never gives you. Starting pitching pushes this game 4.5 toward Miami — Nola at 5.33 against Alcantara at 3.43 — while park, context and the advanced profile all push back toward Philadelphia, and the two sides very nearly cancel. Every line of that is written out with the number it came from. If you disagree with a category, you can find the dial that produced it.

The dials, and why each one is on the board

There are eight macro dials, not ninety-six sliders. Each one states what it measures, what it is currently doing to the spread and the total, whether it is on auto or you have taken it over, and — under “why it’s here” — the actual differential that set it. Every dial opens into its long-form inputs when you want to go further down.

Then run it

Building a number is half of it. The point is finding out where yours sits against everything else pricing the same game. Once your line is built, the matchup runs through the simulators on the same screen — the Cold Line engine, a Monte Carlo replay of the game, and a Poisson model built from statistical priors.

Each engine reaches its own number by its own route, and the market has one of its own. Your build sits beside all of them. Where they cluster, you have a number several independent methods agree on. Where yours is the outlier, that is the interesting part — either you are seeing something the models are not, or a dial needs another look. The comparison is the output.

Simulation counts are yours to set, and the replays are reported with the spread and total they averaged rather than a single confident figure.