What is the commentator's curse in sports betting?
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What is the commentator's curse in sports betting? Look at this. Talk about a win. How many postseason wins on the road? Not very many in Buffalo. First one there for Sean McDermott. January 2022, the divisional round. Buffalo has just gone up 36 to 33 on Kansas City with thirteen seconds to play. Up in the booth, they start handing out the game. Then this happened. A curse called down from the broadcast booth — praise a team, a kicker, or a streak on air before the result is final, and watch it flip. It is sometimes called the commentator’s jinx. In plain terms: you never talk about a streak while it is alive. Call the game over before it is over, and every bettor watching feels the ticket flip. You just heard the famous one — the booth crowning Buffalo while the clock was still running. “Well, Bills looked good until Tony Romo hit them with the commentator’s curse.” Let's use this example. Thirteen seconds left, Buffalo up 36 to 33, and the booth has already called it. Imagine Sean McDermott thinking he has punched his ticket to his first Super Bowl — forgetting that the man on the opposite side of the field is none other than Patrick Mahomes. [Mahomes completes to Tyreek Hill for 19 yards. Kansas City calls timeout.] [Mahomes completes to Travis Kelce for 25 yards. Kansas City calls timeout.] [Harrison Butker’s tying field goal is good. The game goes to overtime.] [Mahomes finds Travis Kelce for the game-winning overtime touchdown. Kansas City wins 42–36 and covers −1.5.] Kansas City needed exactly those thirteen seconds to tie it, then won 42 to 36 in overtime. And here is the betting scar: Kansas City had closed as a one-and-a-half-point favorite. The Chiefs won by six, so they covered by four-and-a-half points. That ticket was dead for fifty-nine minutes and forty-seven seconds, then cashed in overtime. That is the commentator’s curse, played out in real time. Lines and prices can differ by sportsbook. Nothing here guarantees a result or tells you to bet. Lines move and books differ. Nothing here is a guarantee or a command to bet — it's how the number works.
A curse called down from the broadcast booth — praise a team, a kicker, or a streak on air before the result is final, and watch it flip. It is sometimes called the commentator's jinx.