What is expected value (EV) in sports betting?

What is expected value (EV) in sports betting? There is an epidemic failure within the game to understand what is really happening. And this leads people who run Major League Baseball teams to misjudge their players and mismanage their teams. People who run ball clubs, they think in terms of buying players. Your goal shouldn't be to buy players. Your goal should be to buy wins. And in order to buy wins, you need to buy runs. The Boston Red Sox see Johnny Damon, and they see a star who's worth seven and a half million dollars a year. When I see Johnny Damon, what I see is an imperfect understanding of where runs come from. But is he worth the seven and a half million dollars a year the Boston Red Sox are paying him? No. That was Moneyball — Peter Brand telling Billy Beane the whole market is paying the wrong prices. Finding where the price is wrong: that is expected value. The average amount you expect to win or lose per bet over time, given your estimated win probability and the offered price. In plain terms: expected value asks one question — if you made this exact bet a thousand times, would you end up ahead? It grades the price, not tonight’s result. “The expected value on the Yankees game is 3 percent — for the fourth time this week. I'm all over it.” Let's use this example. At plus one twenty with a forty-eight percent win estimate on a one hundred dollar bet, work both sides. The win side is point four eight times one hundred twenty dollars, which is fifty-seven dollars and sixty cents. The loss side is point five two times one hundred dollars, which is fifty-two dollars. Subtract: fifty-seven sixty minus fifty-two is about five dollars and sixty cents expected per bet. Any single night can lose — the edge only shows up across the long run, and only if the forty-eight percent is honest. Lines and prices can differ by sportsbook. Nothing here guarantees a result or tells you to bet. Lines move and books differ. Nothing here is a guarantee or a command to bet — it's how the number works.