What is implied probability in sports betting?
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What is implied probability in sports betting? What do you think the chances are of a guy like you and a girl like me... ...ending up together? Well, Lloyd, that's difficult to say. We really don't— Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances? Not good. You mean, not good like... one out of a hundred? I'd say more like... one out of a million. So you're telling me there's a chance. YEAH! That was Dumb and Dumber — Lloyd asking for his exact odds, and getting them: one in a million. He heard 'a chance.' The number was telling him something else. The win chance baked into American (or other) odds, before removing the book's hold. Posted two-way probabilities often sum above 100% because of vig. In plain terms: What percent chance the price says this side has. minus 110 is about 52.4%; plus 150 is about 40%. “That −150 price has an implied probability of about 60 percent.” Let's use this example. Here is how you get the number, not just what it is. For a minus price, divide the price by the price plus 100: minus 150 becomes 150 divided by 250, which is 60.0 percent. For a plus price, divide 100 by the price plus 100: plus 130 becomes 100 divided by 230, which is 43.48 percent. Same two steps every time — that is the win chance the price is quoting, before the book's cut is removed. Lines move and books differ. Nothing here is a guarantee or a command to bet — it's how the number works.
The win chance baked into American (or other) odds, before removing the book's hold. Posted two-way probabilities often sum above 100% because of vig.
