Syncing the cold line...
The Cold Line
Syncing the cold line...
The Cold Line
The short answer
The win chance baked into American (or other) odds, before removing the book's hold. Posted two-way probabilities often sum above 100% because of vig.
What is implied probability in sports betting? What do you think the chances are of a guy like you and a girl like me... ...ending up together? Well, Lloyd, that's difficult to say. We really don't— Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances? Not good. You mean, not good like... one out of a hundred? I'd say more like... one out of a million. So you're telling me there's a chance. YEAH! That was Dumb and Dumber — Lloyd asking for his exact odds, and getting them: one in a million. He heard 'a chance.' The number was telling him something else. The win chance baked into American (or other) odds, before removing the book's hold. Posted two-way probabilities often sum above 100% because of vig. In plain terms: What percent chance the price says this side has. minus 110 is about 52.4%; plus 150 is about 40%. “That −150 price has an implied probability of about 60 percent.” Let's use this example. Here is how you get the number, not just what it is. For a minus price, divide the price by the price plus 100: minus 150 becomes 150 divided by 250, which is 60.0 percent. For a plus price, divide 100 by the price plus 100: plus 130 becomes 100 divided by 230, which is 43.48 percent. Same two steps every time — that is the win chance the price is quoting, before the book's cut is removed. Lines move and books differ. Nothing here is a guarantee or a command to bet — it's how the number works.
Knowing the language is step one — knowing the true price is the edge. The Cold Line’s signal desk tracks the no-vig fair number and the closing-line value behind terms like this, before the market moves.
What percent chance the price says this side has. −110 ≈ 52.4%; +150 ≈ 40%.
Term quiz
1.Implied probability is…
2.Convert −150 to an implied probability.
3.Why do the two sides of a market usually add up to more than 100%?
Explore the next question before you place a bet.
You know what Implied Probability means. Now see it in action: The Cold Line’s signal desk prices the no-vig fair number before the market moves — and publishes the closing-line-value receipts to prove it. A signal desk, not another tout or handicapping service.
Browse the full A–Z betting glossary or read the complete betting guide. The Cold Line also publishes a free year-round sports calendar and live odds board — no signup required.
