What is a long shot in sports betting?

What is a long shot in sports betting? He's got him again! Oh, nice uppercut! Look at this! He's knocked Mike Tyson down for the first time in his career. Mike Tyson hits the canvas. He's in big trouble. He may not be able to recover. It's up to seven and eight. He's not gonna make it. Unbelievable! That was Tokyo, February 11, 1990. Buster Douglas just knocked out Mike Tyson in the tenth round, two rounds after Tyson had him on the canvas. The Mirage was the only Las Vegas book taking straight bets, and the best price anyone got on Douglas was 37 to 1. A team or bet that probably loses but pays a lot when it wins: a big underdog at a long price. At 37 to 1, plus 3700, a hundred dollars wins three thousand seven hundred, and you get three thousand eight hundred back. That price gives Douglas about a 2.6 percent chance: 1 win in 38 tries. In plain terms: nearly everyone was on Tyson. He was the chalk, the side the crowd expects to win. The long shot is the side almost nobody takes, and that is why it pays so much when it wins. “Everybody took the chalk this week. I went with the long shot.” Let's use this example. Here is the same idea in a survivor pool, with made-up numbers. Say 100 entries are left, and 80 of them take this week's chalk. You take a long shot. Most weeks, the long shot loses and you are out. But if your team wins while the chalk loses, those 80 entries go out at once. At most 20 are left, and you are one of them. On The Cold Line's survivor pick boxes, Chance it wins and Worth if it wins show both sides of that trade. A long shot is not a hidden bargain. The big payout is the price of a small chance, and the book shaves it: you had to lay 42 to 1, minus 4200, to back Tyson, but Douglas only paid 37 to 1, plus 3700. The gap between the two prices is the book's vig. Lines move and books differ. Nothing here is a guarantee or a command to bet — it's how the number works.