Sports research guides

Explore Survivor planning, contest research, weather, statistics and probability. Read Richard Colby’s full articles or their TL;DR summaries, with examples, sources and clear limits on what the tools can tell you.

• Circa Survivor Strategy: A Complete Season of Free Tools With The Cold Line

  Plan Circa Survivor with actual entry records, team availability, season paths, holiday rounds and free TCL tools. Understand the limits of forecasts and hedges.

• NFL Survivor Pool Strategy: Build a Season Plan for Free With The Cold Line

  Understand NFL Survivor pool strategy with season paths, team future value, pool rules and free TCL planning tools. Save separate plans with a free account.

• Circa Million Strategy: Build a Better Five-Pick Card With The Cold Line

  Research a Circa Million five-pick card with contest spreads, market lines, matchup context and TCL tools. Learn the scoring, deadlines and free versus paid access.

• NFL Survivor Pool Rules: A Simple Guide to Picks, Ties and Elimination

  Learn NFL Survivor pool rules in plain English: winning picks, used teams, ties, deadlines and elimination. Plan your season with TCL’s free tools.

• How TCL Uses Actual Circa Entries to Forecast Picks and Eliminations

  See how TCL uses actual Circa entries and used teams to forecast picks and eliminations. Learn what is confirmed, what is estimated and why it matters.

• Managing Multiple Survivor Entries: Different Paths, Shared Risk

  Understand the tradeoffs of using the same team or different teams across Survivor entries. Compare paths and shared risk with TCL’s free planning tools.

• When Can a Survivor Hedge Actually Protect a Return?

  Learn when a Survivor hedge can protect a return, how ties change the result, and why an estimated entry value is different from a cash payout.

• American and Decimal Odds: How to Convert Both Ways

  Convert American odds to decimal odds and back with easy examples. Understand profit, total return and implied probability using TCL’s free explanations.

• True Shooting Percentage vs. Effective Field Goal Percentage: A Plain-English Guide

  Understand true shooting and effective field goal percentage with simple basketball examples. See how three-pointers and free throws change the comparison.

• Survivor Pool EV Explained: Why the Safest Pick Is Not the Whole Answer

  Learn Survivor pool expected value with simple examples. See how win chance, pick popularity, available teams and prize rules affect the decision.

• Survivor Team Future Value: When to Use a Team and When to Save It

  See when to use a Survivor team and when to save it. Simple two-week examples explain future value, holiday options and TCL’s free season planner.

• Circa Survivor Holiday Rounds: Save Enough Teams for Thanksgiving and Christmas

  Plan Circa Survivor’s Thanksgiving and Christmas rounds. Learn how unused teams, holiday holds and overlapping schedules affect your remaining choices.

• Same Five Teams. Two Different Cards.

  Compare Circa Million and Westgate fixed lines before copying a five-pick card. A fictional example shows why identical teams can earn different contest scores.

• Your 4–1 Card Is Lying to You.

  Review the original reasons behind a five-pick card, preserve revisions and separate post-lock what-ifs. Understand the limits of hindsight and outcome-bias research.

• NFL Weather Report: How to Read a Game-Day Forecast

  Read an NFL weather report by stadium and kickoff time. Check wind, gusts, rain timing, roof status and forecast updates with a practical research checklist.

• How Wind Affects NFL Passing and Field Goals

  Understand headwinds, crosswinds and gusts in football. Learn why wind speed alone cannot predict passing accuracy, kick distance or a game's result.

• NFL Matchup Analysis: Read Yards per Play in Context

  Compare NFL matchup statistics with clear denominators. Learn what yards per play, EPA and red-zone rates reveal—and what they leave unresolved.

• College Football Weather: Build a Stadium-by-Stadium Report

  Build a college football weather report by venue and kickoff time. Track forecast changes, neutral sites, wind and uncertainty across the Saturday slate.

• College Football Passing Efficiency: Formula, Example and Limits

  Calculate college football passing efficiency with a worked example. See how attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions shape the rating.

• Basketball Pace: Why Points per Game Can Mislead

  Understand basketball pace and compare scoring on a possession basis. Work through offensive rating examples and avoid mixing volume with efficiency.

• Effective Field Goal Percentage: Formula, Examples and Limits

  Calculate effective field goal percentage and see why three-pointers change the comparison. Work through examples and learn what eFG% does not measure.

• How to Use an AI Sports Betting Assistant (and What It Can't Do)

  Ask an AI betting assistant better questions, check where its numbers come from, and know its limits: no picks, no guarantees. A practical guide with Watty & Penny.

• Read an MLB weather report

  Match the forecast to the game window, ballpark and roof conditions.

• Understand Wrigley Field wind

  Translate a wind direction into inward, outward and cross-field components.

• Convert odds to implied probability

  Work through four odds formats and separate quoted probability from a forecast.