Syncing the cold line...
The Cold Line
Syncing the cold line...
The Cold Line
The short answer
The estimated fair win probabilities (and fair odds) after removing the sportsbook's overround from a market.
What is no-vig fair value in sports betting? The estimated fair win probabilities (and fair odds) after removing the sportsbook's overround from a market. In plain terms: strip the book's cut out of the two prices and you see the market's true opinion — the fair odds a cut-free book would post. “What's the no-vig fair value at Pinnacle on Bears–Packers?” Let's use this example. Take a market of minus one eighty and plus one fifty-five. Minus one eighty implies sixty-four point three percent, and plus one fifty-five implies thirty-nine point two percent. Add them and you get one hundred three point five percent — more than certainty, and that excess is the book's cut. Divide each by one hundred three point five to strip it out: sixty-four point three divided by one hundred three point five is sixty-two point one percent fair, and the other side is thirty-seven point nine. If your own estimate says sixty-six percent, judge the favorite against sixty-two point one — not against the juiced price. Lines and prices can differ by sportsbook. Nothing here guarantees a result or tells you to bet. Lines move and books differ. Nothing here is a guarantee or a command to bet — it's how the number works.
Knowing the language is step one — knowing the true price is the edge. The Cold Line’s signal desk tracks the no-vig fair number and the closing-line value behind terms like this, before the market moves.
What the odds might look like if the book took no cut — a fair coin-flip split of the market's prices.
Term quiz
1.No-vig fair value is…
2.A market of −180 / +155 implies 64.3% and 39.2%. What do you do next?
3.Why compare your estimate to the fair number rather than the posted price?
Explore the next question before you place a bet.
You know what No-Vig Fair Value means. Now see it in action: The Cold Line’s signal desk prices the no-vig fair number before the market moves — and publishes the closing-line-value receipts to prove it. A signal desk, not another tout or handicapping service.
Browse the full A–Z betting glossary or read the complete betting guide. The Cold Line also publishes a free year-round sports calendar and live odds board — no signup required.
