Plan your NFL survivor season
Optimal path · how it is computed · FAQ
Plan your NFL survivor pool picks week by week
Choose one NFL team to win each week, without using the same team twice. Look ahead across all 18 regular-season weeks, compare opponents and bye weeks, and keep stronger options available for later. Home and road games are marked with @ and vs, and teams you have used are greyed out.
Survivor pool optimal path
The path view lays out a full route through every week you have left, around the picks you have already made. Max survival is the route with the highest chance of surviving every remaining week. Next 8 weeks plans only the next eight weeks and fills the rest with the teams left over, because far weeks are uncertain. Safest each week takes the strongest available team every week in order and shows what that habit costs over a season.
Under Max survival the planner also shows a plausible survival range and the next-best full paths. Refresh reloads the latest lines, and a failed load retries on its own.
How the path is computed
Every NFL team gets a power rating built from this season’s results and the point spreads posted by sportsbooks. Each rating starts near league average and keeps track of how unsure it is. For a game with a posted line, the win chance comes from that line. For a game further out, it comes from the two ratings plus home field, with more uncertainty each week ahead.
Choosing one team per week with no team used twice has one best answer, and the planner finds it exactly (it uses the Hungarian method), so Max survival really is the highest chance of surviving every week under these numbers. Then it plans the season again a few hundred times with slightly different ratings and shows the range where 8 out of 10 of those results land. The survival figure is an estimate, not a promise.
Survivor pool future value: spend now or save
Spend now or save ranks the options for the current week and prices each one against the best path: if you use this team now, how much of your season survival chance is left? That share is the team’s future value. A strong team with easy games later is often worth more saved than spent on a week where a safer option exists.
NFL survivor grid for every team and every week
On a desktop screen, switch the planner from List to Grid to see an NFL survivor grid: all 32 teams down the side and the 18 weeks across. Each cell shows who the team plays, marked @ on the road and vs at home or on a neutral field, and the planner’s win chance for it, shaded from safest to riskiest. Teams you have already used and bye weeks are greyed out, and a tap on an open cell picks that team. Phones keep the list view.
Pool EV and your own survivor pool
Survival is only half the question in a pool with a pot. Under Pool rules, Your pool takes the size of your pool, the first and last week it plays, and each week’s pick shares: type a percentage for each team, paste a list, or load Circa’s published pick shares for a week. With a pool size or pick shares in place, Path to win it all adds a Pool EV view that weighs your chance of surviving against how many rivals are likely to still be alive with you. Add the pot and the planner estimates what your entry is worth in dollars. A small pool tends to spend its strong teams early and a large pool tends to save them.
Standard pools have no public sheet of what everyone else picked, so the pick shares are yours to enter. Until you enter a week, the planner uses its own estimate and labels it as a model number.
Use your own win chances
You do not have to accept the planner’s numbers. On any open game in the path, Set % replaces the planner’s win chance with yours. The path, Pool EV and the survival range are recalculated around your number for that plan only, and the number is marked User wherever it shows. Reset puts the planner’s own number back. Final games keep their real result.
Plan several survivor entries together
Entries in the same pool share the same games, so planning them one at a time can leave them all standing on the same teams. Sign in, save more than one plan under the same pool rules, and the Portfolio below the path evaluates them together: the chance that at least one is still alive, the expected number of plans alive, how many of your plans lean on the same team each week, and any plans that are identical. Plan them together suggests changes that spread the plans out under one of two goals, At least one alive or Total value, with a cap on how many plans may share a team. Nothing changes until you tap Plan it on a plan. A pool portfolio holds up to 30 plans. Without an account you plan one draft at a time.
Survivor pool rules the planner handles
Pool rules are optional and every one of them is yours to set: one to four lives, how a tie is graded, one to three picks per week, bye weeks when your pool sits out, a loser pool where you pick teams to lose, ATS grading where the pick must cover the posted spread (beta), a buyback week, a pick deadline with reminders, and which odds to plan on: the posted line, the planner’s ratings alone, or a blend you weight. The defaults match the most common pool: one life, a tie counts as a loss, one pick a week.
Frequently asked questions
How does the planner choose a survivor pool path?
It rates every NFL team from this season’s results and posted point spreads, turns each game into a win chance, and solves for the one-team-per-week route with the highest chance of surviving every week you have left. The solve is exact, not a week-by-week guess.
Are these the best NFL survivor pool picks this week?
No planner can promise that. The path is the highest-survival route under the planner’s ratings and the current lines. Injuries, line moves, and upsets change the numbers, which is why the planner shows a plausible range and next-best paths. You make the pick.
How are holiday games handled?
Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Christmas games stay in their normal NFL weeks. You make one pick for that week. There are no extra holiday rounds or holiday team holds.
Can I try it for free?
Yes. Explore one draft without logging in. A free account lets you save multiple plans and return to them later. Guest drafts are not stored or transferred automatically when you create an account.
Can I plan more than one survivor entry at once?
Yes, when you are signed in. Save more than one plan under the same pool rules and the Portfolio below the path evaluates them together: the chance at least one is still alive, the expected number alive, how many lean on the same team each week, and any identical plans. Plan them together suggests changes and only plan changes when you tap Plan it. A pool portfolio holds up to 30 plans. Without an account you plan one draft at a time.
Does the planner value my entry against the pot, not only my chance to survive?
Yes. Enter your pool’s size and each week’s pick shares under Pool rules and Path to win it all adds a Pool EV view that weighs your chance of surviving against how many rivals are likely to be alive with you. With a pot entered it estimates what your entry is worth in dollars. These are estimates from your own inputs, not promises.
Can I use my own win probabilities?
Yes. On any open game in the path, Set % replaces the planner’s win chance with yours. The path, Pool EV and the survival range recalculate around your number for that plan, and your number is marked User wherever it shows. Reset restores the planner’s number.
What is the NFL survivor grid?
It is the planner’s team-by-week board on desktop: 32 teams down the side, 18 weeks across, each cell showing the opponent, @ or vs, and the win chance, shaded from safest to riskiest. Used teams and bye weeks are greyed out and a tap on an open cell picks that team. Switch between List and Grid above the planner; phones keep the list.
Which survivor pool rules can I set?
One to four lives, the tie rule, one to three picks per week, bye weeks, a loser pool, ATS grading (beta), a buyback week, a pick deadline with reminders, and the odds to plan on: the posted line, the planner’s ratings, or a blend. The defaults are one life and a tie counts as a loss.
Does this enter my picks?
No. This is a look-ahead planner. It does not enter picks in your pool or send anything to anyone. Check your pool for submission deadlines, tie rules, postponed games, and any custom requirements. You can add past picks for weeks that are over, so the planner knows which teams you have used.
What if I forgot to enter a past week? (backfill)
Open that week on the week strip and tap the team you really picked in your pool. That team counts as used, and your plan only uses teams you have left. Each past pick is graded from the real final score. Once you add your first past pick, a later week that is over with no pick counts as a loss, so add any you missed. The planner does not check that you really made the pick, and it does not enter anything in your pool. Entries you follow on the Circa Survivor planner are different: Circa owns and tracks those picks, so you cannot edit them.
Survivor pool terms
Playing the Circa format? Use the Circa Survivor 2026 planner for its separate Thanksgiving and Christmas picks, holiday tracker, and its guess at what Circa’s players pick.
A planning tool for a standard NFL survivor pool: one team per week, each team used once. Your pool sets its own deadlines, tie rules, and entry requirements. Nothing here submits a pick to your pool.
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