Week 10 Circa Survivor Picks (Nov 12–16, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:37 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
JAX is the safest Week 10 pick at 78% to win @ TEN, from the posted line, followed by LAR (76%) and BUF (73%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 11 remaining picks 4.7% of the time and uses LAR on Week 10. Using JAX now leaves 91% of that path; it is worth more later. The projected Circa field puts 38% of entries on LAR (about 232 entries). Projected eliminations: about 167 entries.
WSH@
NYG
NYG-1.5Locks at kickoff, Thu, Nov 12, 7:15 PM CTSafest Week 10 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | @  TEN | 78.1% | Line | -9% | 12% |
| 2 |  LARLos Angeles Rams | @  ARI | 75.8% | Line | Best | 9% |
| 3 |  BUFBuffalo Bills | @  NYJ | 73.5% | Line | -12% | 9% |
| 4 |  SEASeattle Seahawks | @  LV | 68.3% | Line | -10% | 0% |
| 5 |  BALBaltimore Ravens | vs  LAC | 62.9% | Line | -17% | 0% |
| 6 |  HOUHouston Texans | @  CLE | 62.9% | Line | -22% | 6% |
| 7 |  INDIndianapolis Colts | vs  MIA | 60.1% | Line | -21% | 0% |
| 8 |  SFSan Francisco 49ers | @  DAL | 60.1% | Line | -26% | 7% |
| 9 |  CINCincinnati Bengals | vs  PIT | 60.1% | Line | -21% | 0% |
| 10 |  KCKansas City Chiefs | @  ATL | 58.6% | Line | -27% | 5% |
| 11 |  GBGreen Bay Packers | vs  MIN | 58.6% | Line | -30% | 9% |
| 12 |  NONew Orleans Saints | vs  CAR | 57.1% | Line | -25% | 0% |
| 13 |  DETDetroit Lions | vs  NE | 57.1% | Line | -32% | 10% |
| 14 | NYGNew York Giants | vs  WSH | 54.2% | Line | -29% | 0% |
| 15 | WSHWashington Commanders | @ NYG | 45.3% | Line | -40% | 0% |
| 16 |  NENew England Patriots | vs  DET | 42.4% | Line | -44% | 0% |
| 17 |  CARCarolina Panthers | @  NO | 42.4% | Line | -44% | 0% |
| 18 |  ATLAtlanta Falcons | vs  KC | 41.0% | Line | -46% | 0% |
| 19 |  MINMinnesota Vikings | @  GB | 41.0% | Line | -46% | 0% |
| 20 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | @  IND | 39.5% | Line | -48% | 0% |
| 21 |  PITPittsburgh Steelers | @  CIN | 39.5% | Line | -51% | 6% |
| 22 |  DALDallas Cowboys | vs  SF | 39.5% | Line | -55% | 15% |
| 23 |  LACLos Angeles Chargers | @  BAL | 36.7% | Line | -52% | 0% |
| 24 |  CLECleveland Browns | vs  HOU | 36.7% | Line | -52% | 0% |
| 25 |  LVLas Vegas Raiders | vs  SEA | 31.2% | Line | -59% | 0% |
| 26 |  NYJNew York Jets | vs  BUF | 26.2% | Line | -65% | 0% |
| 27 |  ARIArizona Cardinals | vs  LAR | 23.8% | Line | -69% | 0% |
| 28 |  TENTennessee Titans | vs  JAX | 21.6% | Line | -72% | 0% |
Circa field forecast · Week 10
Projected share of the Circa field on each team, fit to Circa’s public sheets for Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 (pick share rises with win probability to the power 11.8, and teams the field already spent are less available). About 609 entries alive. Projected eliminations: about 167 entries.
| Team | Projected share | ~Entries | Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| LARLos Angeles Rams | 38.0% | 232 | 76% |
| BUFBuffalo Bills | 27.8% | 169 | 73% |
| JAXJacksonville Jaguars | 11.7% | 71 | 78% |
| SEASeattle Seahawks | 8.3% | 51 | 68% |
| BALBaltimore Ravens | 2.8% | 17 | 63% |
| HOUHouston Texans | 2.7% | 17 | 63% |
| INDIndianapolis Colts | 2.7% | 17 | 60% |
| GBGreen Bay Packers | 2.0% | 12 | 59% |
Value of each team
Future value for Week 10: how much of the rest of the season that team is worth, from the same plan as the picks pages. The number is shown. An account uncovers which team it belongs to.
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Circa's 2026 registration is closed. The Cold Line does not register entries or submit official picks.
Every Week 10 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH@NYGOpen matchupThu, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET | NYG -1.5 | WSH45%NYG54% | Line |
| NEvsDETOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET | DET -2.5 | NE42%DET57% | Line |
| BUF@NYJOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | BUF -8.5 | BUF73%NYJ26% | Line |
| CAR@NOOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | NO -2.5 | CAR42%NO57% | Line |
| HOU@CLEOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | HOU -4.5 | HOU63%CLE37% | Line |
| JAX@TENOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | JAX -10.5 | JAX78%TEN22% | Line |
| KC@ATLOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | KC -3 | KC59%ATL41% | Line |
| MIA@INDOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | IND -3.5 | MIA40%IND60% | Line |
| MIN@GBOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | GB -3 | MIN41%GB59% | Line |
| LAR@ARIOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET | LAR -9.5 | LAR76%ARI24% | Line |
| SEA@LVOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET | SEA -6.5 | SEA68%LV31% | Line |
| SF@DALOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET | SF -3.5 | SF60%DAL40% | Line |
| PIT@CINOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET | CIN -3.5 | PIT40%CIN60% | Line |
| LAC@BALOpen matchupMon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET | BAL -4.5 | LAC37%BAL63% | Line |
Public consensus
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No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Circa Sports lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
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How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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