Week 10 Survivor Picks (Nov 12–16, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
JAX is the safest Week 10 pick at 78% to win @ TEN, from the posted line, followed by LAR (76%) and BUF (73%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 9 remaining weeks 11% of the time and uses LAR on Week 10. Using JAX now leaves 91% of that path; it is worth more later.
WSH@
NYG
NYG-1.5Locks at kickoff, Thu, Nov 12, 7:15 PM CTSafest Week 10 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | @  TEN | 78.1% | Line | -9% | 12% |
| 2 |  LARLos Angeles Rams | @  ARI | 75.8% | Line | Best | 9% |
| 3 |  BUFBuffalo Bills | @  NYJ | 73.5% | Line | -9% | 6% |
| 4 |  SEASeattle Seahawks | @  LV | 68.3% | Line | -10% | 0% |
| 5 |  BALBaltimore Ravens | vs  LAC | 62.9% | Line | -17% | 0% |
| 6 |  HOUHouston Texans | @  CLE | 62.9% | Line | -17% | 0% |
| 7 |  INDIndianapolis Colts | vs  MIA | 60.1% | Line | -21% | 0% |
| 8 |  SFSan Francisco 49ers | @  DAL | 60.1% | Line | -26% | 7% |
| 9 |  CINCincinnati Bengals | vs  PIT | 60.1% | Line | -21% | 0% |
| 10 |  KCKansas City Chiefs | @  ATL | 58.6% | Line | -24% | 2% |
| 11 |  GBGreen Bay Packers | vs  MIN | 58.6% | Line | -30% | 9% |
| 12 |  NONew Orleans Saints | vs  CAR | 57.1% | Line | -25% | 0% |
| 13 |  DETDetroit Lions | vs  NE | 57.1% | Line | -32% | 10% |
| 14 | NYGNew York Giants | vs  WSH | 54.2% | Line | -29% | 0% |
| 15 | WSHWashington Commanders | @ NYG | 45.3% | Line | -40% | 0% |
| 16 |  NENew England Patriots | vs  DET | 42.4% | Line | -44% | 0% |
| 17 |  CARCarolina Panthers | @  NO | 42.4% | Line | -44% | 0% |
| 18 |  ATLAtlanta Falcons | vs  KC | 41.0% | Line | -46% | 0% |
| 19 |  MINMinnesota Vikings | @  GB | 41.0% | Line | -46% | 0% |
| 20 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | @  IND | 39.5% | Line | -48% | 0% |
| 21 |  PITPittsburgh Steelers | @  CIN | 39.5% | Line | -51% | 6% |
| 22 |  DALDallas Cowboys | vs  SF | 39.5% | Line | -48% | 0% |
| 23 |  LACLos Angeles Chargers | @  BAL | 36.7% | Line | -52% | 0% |
| 24 |  CLECleveland Browns | vs  HOU | 36.7% | Line | -52% | 0% |
| 25 |  LVLas Vegas Raiders | vs  SEA | 31.2% | Line | -59% | 0% |
| 26 |  NYJNew York Jets | vs  BUF | 26.2% | Line | -65% | 0% |
| 27 |  ARIArizona Cardinals | vs  LAR | 23.8% | Line | -69% | 0% |
| 28 |  TENTennessee Titans | vs  JAX | 21.6% | Line | -72% | 0% |
Every Week 10 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH@NYGOpen matchupThu, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET | NYG -1.5 | WSH45%NYG54% | Line |
| NEvsDETOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET | DET -2.5 | NE42%DET57% | Line |
| BUF@NYJOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | BUF -8.5 | BUF73%NYJ26% | Line |
| CAR@NOOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | NO -2.5 | CAR42%NO57% | Line |
| HOU@CLEOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | HOU -4.5 | HOU63%CLE37% | Line |
| JAX@TENOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | JAX -10.5 | JAX78%TEN22% | Line |
| KC@ATLOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | KC -3 | KC59%ATL41% | Line |
| MIA@INDOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | IND -3.5 | MIA40%IND60% | Line |
| MIN@GBOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | GB -3 | MIN41%GB59% | Line |
| LAR@ARIOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET | LAR -9.5 | LAR76%ARI24% | Line |
| SEA@LVOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET | SEA -6.5 | SEA68%LV31% | Line |
| SF@DALOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET | SF -3.5 | SF60%DAL40% | Line |
| PIT@CINOpen matchupSun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET | CIN -3.5 | PIT40%CIN60% | Line |
| LAC@BALOpen matchupMon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET | BAL -4.5 | LAC37%BAL63% | Line |
Public consensus
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No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Pinnacle lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
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How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
A planning tool for a standard NFL survivor pool: one team per week, each team used once. Your pool sets its own deadlines, tie rules, and entry requirements. Nothing here submits a pick to your pool.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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