Week 14 Survivor Picks (Dec 10–14, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Model projection. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 14 yet, so every win chance below comes from our team ratings, which are less sure the further off a week is. These numbers will move.
DET is the safest Week 14 pick at 76% to win vs TEN, from the model projection, followed by JAX (69%) and SEA (68%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 9 remaining weeks 11% of the time and uses DET on Week 14. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 14 yet, so every win probability here is a model projection and will move.
MIN@
NELine not posted yetLocks at kickoff, Thu, Dec 10, 7:15 PM CTSafest Week 14 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DETDetroit Lions | vs  TEN | 75.5% | Model | Best | 10% |
| 2 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | vs  PIT | 68.7% | Model | -20% | 12% |
| 3 |  SEASeattle Seahawks | vs  NYG | 68.3% | Model | -9% | 0% |
| 4 |  CHIChicago Bears | @  MIA | 66.7% | Model | -12% | 0% |
| 5 |  LVLas Vegas Raiders | vs  LAC | 60.8% | Model | -19% | 0% |
| 6 |  SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  LAR | 60.2% | Model | -26% | 7% |
| 7 |  DENDenver Broncos | @  NYJ | 59.0% | Model | -23% | 2% |
| 8 |  CARCarolina Panthers | vs  NO | 57.7% | Model | -24% | 0% |
| 9 |  CINCincinnati Bengals | vs  KC | 57.4% | Model | -24% | 0% |
| 10 |  HOUHouston Texans | @  WSH | 55.3% | Model | -27% | 0% |
| 11 |  BUFBuffalo Bills | @  GB | 55.1% | Model | -31% | 6% |
| 12 |  TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | @  BAL | 54.7% | Model | -28% | 0% |
| 13 | NENew England Patriots | vs  MIN | 53.7% | Model | -29% | 0% |
| 14 |  PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | vs  IND | 53.7% | Model | -29% | 0% |
| 15 |  CLECleveland Browns | vs  ATL | 52.9% | Model | -30% | 0% |
| 16 |  ATLAtlanta Falcons | @  CLE | 46.7% | Model | -38% | 0% |
| 17 |  INDIndianapolis Colts | @  PHI | 45.9% | Model | -39% | 0% |
| 18 | MINMinnesota Vikings | @  NE | 45.9% | Model | -39% | 0% |
| 19 |  BALBaltimore Ravens | vs  TB | 44.8% | Model | -41% | 0% |
| 20 |  GBGreen Bay Packers | vs  BUF | 44.4% | Model | -47% | 9% |
| 21 |  WSHWashington Commanders | vs  HOU | 44.3% | Model | -41% | 0% |
| 22 |  KCKansas City Chiefs | @  CIN | 42.2% | Model | -45% | 2% |
| 23 |  NONew Orleans Saints | @  CAR | 41.8% | Model | -45% | 0% |
| 24 |  NYJNew York Jets | vs  DEN | 40.6% | Model | -46% | 0% |
| 25 |  LARLos Angeles Rams | @  SF | 39.4% | Model | -53% | 9% |
| 26 |  LACLos Angeles Chargers | @  LV | 38.8% | Model | -49% | 0% |
| 27 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | vs  CHI | 32.9% | Model | -56% | 0% |
| 28 |  NYGNew York Giants | @  SEA | 31.3% | Model | -59% | 0% |
| 29 |  PITPittsburgh Steelers | @  JAX | 30.9% | Model | -61% | 6% |
| 30 |  TENTennessee Titans | @  DET | 24.1% | Model | -68% | 0% |
Every Week 14 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@NEOpen matchupThu, Dec 10, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Dec 10, 8:15 PM ET | — | MIN46%NE54% | Model |
| ATL@CLEOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | ATL47%CLE53% | Model |
| CHI@MIAOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | CHI67%MIA33% | Model |
| DEN@NYJOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | DEN59%NYJ41% | Model |
| HOU@WSHOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | HOU55%WSH44% | Model |
| IND@PHIOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | IND46%PHI54% | Model |
| NO@CAROpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | NO42%CAR58% | Model |
| TB@BALOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | TB55%BAL45% | Model |
| TEN@DETOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | TEN24%DET76% | Model |
| LAC@LVOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 4:05 PM ET | — | LAC39%LV61% | Model |
| KC@CINOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 4:25 PM ET | — | KC42%CIN57% | Model |
| LAR@SFOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 4:25 PM ET | — | LAR39%SF60% | Model |
| NYG@SEAOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 4:25 PM ET | — | NYG31%SEA68% | Model |
| BUF@GBOpen matchupSun, Dec 13, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Dec 13, 8:20 PM ET | — | BUF55%GB44% | Model |
| PIT@JAXOpen matchupMon, Dec 14, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Dec 14, 8:15 PM ET | — | PIT31%JAX69% | Model |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Pinnacle lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
Loading fair value…
How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
A planning tool for a standard NFL survivor pool: one team per week, each team used once. Your pool sets its own deadlines, tie rules, and entry requirements. Nothing here submits a pick to your pool.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
Create a free account
Keep the Week 14 board, then plan the rest of the season from your own account.
Free Rookie account. No payment today. Pro $29.99/mo and Sharp $99.99/mo. Launch rates through June 30, 2027. Telegram alerts $4.95/mo. Watty & Penny AI $4.95/mo.
- Create the free account.
- Confirm the email we send.
- Sign in. Pro and Sharp stay optional.