Week 11 Survivor Picks (Nov 19–23, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 5:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
BUF is the safest Week 11 pick at 89% to win vs MIA, from the posted line, followed by KC (85%) and HOU (77%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 9 remaining weeks 11% of the time and uses KC on Week 11. Using BUF now leaves 98% of that path; it is worth more later.
IND@
HOU
HOU-10Locks at kickoff, Thu, Nov 19, 7:15 PM CTSafest Week 11 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUFBuffalo Bills | vs  MIA | 88.9% | Line | -2% | 6% |
| 2 |  KCKansas City Chiefs | vs  ARI | 85.0% | Line | Best | 2% |
| 3 | HOUHouston Texans | vs  IND | 77.0% | Line | -9% | 0% |
| 4 |  CHIChicago Bears | vs  NO | 75.8% | Line | -11% | 0% |
| 5 |  DENDenver Broncos | vs  LV | 73.5% | Line | -15% | 2% |
| 6 |  DALDallas Cowboys | vs  TEN | 71.0% | Line | -17% | 0% |
| 7 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | @  NYG | 67.0% | Line | -31% | 12% |
| 8 |  PITPittsburgh Steelers | @  PHI | 62.9% | Line | -30% | 6% |
| 9 |  SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  MIN | 60.1% | Line | -34% | 7% |
| 10 |  CINCincinnati Bengals | @  WSH | 60.1% | Line | -29% | 0% |
| 11 |  DETDetroit Lions | vs  TB | 60.1% | Line | -36% | 10% |
| 12 |  LACLos Angeles Chargers | vs  NYJ | 54.2% | Line | -36% | 0% |
| 13 |  CARCarolina Panthers | vs  BAL | 54.2% | Line | -36% | 0% |
| 14 |  NYJNew York Jets | @  LAC | 45.3% | Line | -47% | 0% |
| 15 |  BALBaltimore Ravens | @  CAR | 45.3% | Line | -47% | 0% |
| 16 |  MINMinnesota Vikings | vs  SF | 39.5% | Line | -53% | 0% |
| 17 |  TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | @  DET | 39.5% | Line | -53% | 0% |
| 18 |  WSHWashington Commanders | vs  CIN | 39.5% | Line | -53% | 0% |
| 19 |  PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | vs  PIT | 36.7% | Line | -57% | 0% |
| 20 |  NYGNew York Giants | vs  JAX | 32.6% | Line | -62% | 0% |
| 21 |  TENTennessee Titans | @  DAL | 28.7% | Line | -66% | 0% |
| 22 |  LVLas Vegas Raiders | @  DEN | 26.2% | Line | -69% | 0% |
| 23 |  NONew Orleans Saints | @  CHI | 23.8% | Line | -72% | 0% |
| 24 | INDIndianapolis Colts | @ HOU | 22.7% | Line | -73% | 0% |
| 25 |  ARIArizona Cardinals | @  KC | 14.8% | Line | -83% | 0% |
| 26 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | @  BUF | 10.9% | Line | -87% | 0% |
Every Week 11 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUOpen matchupThu, Nov 19, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Nov 19, 8:15 PM ET | HOU -10 | IND23%HOU77% | Line |
| ARI@KCOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | KC -14 | ARI15%KC85% | Line |
| BAL@CAROpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | CAR -1.5 | BAL45%CAR54% | Line |
| MIA@BUFOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | BUF -16.5 | MIA11%BUF89% | Line |
| NO@CHIOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | CHI -9.5 | NO24%CHI76% | Line |
| TB@DETOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | DET -3.5 | TB40%DET60% | Line |
| TEN@DALOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | DAL -7.5 | TEN29%DAL71% | Line |
| PIT@PHIOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | PIT -4.5 | PIT63%PHI37% | Line |
| NYJ@LACOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 4:05 PM ET | LAC -1.5 | NYJ45%LAC54% | Line |
| JAX@NYGOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET | JAX -6 | JAX67%NYG33% | Line |
| LV@DENOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET | DEN -8.5 | LV26%DEN73% | Line |
| MINvsSFOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 8:20 PM ET | SF -3.5 | MIN40%SF60% | Line |
| CIN@WSHOpen matchupMon, Nov 23, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Nov 23, 8:15 PM ET | CIN -3.5 | CIN60%WSH40% | Line |
Public consensus
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No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Pinnacle lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
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How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
A planning tool for a standard NFL survivor pool: one team per week, each team used once. Your pool sets its own deadlines, tie rules, and entry requirements. Nothing here submits a pick to your pool.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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