Week 4 Survivor Picks (Oct 1–5, 2026)
Week 5 Survivor Picks (Oct 8–12, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Week 4 is final. This page shows results: which picks won and lost.
16 of 16 Week 4 games are final. The model's 3 safest pre-week picks went 3–0: MIN won (74% before the week), SEA won (71% before the week), SF won (67% before the week).
PIT24@
CLE27Line not posted yetFinalHow the safest Week 4 picks did
Pre-week win probability from team ratings fit on earlier games only (walk-forward), so it is what the model knew before kickoff.
| Team | Opponent | Pre-week win | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 MINMinnesota Vikings | vs  MIA | 74% | Won | 15–10 |
 SEASeattle Seahawks | vs  LAC | 71% | Won | 30–23 |
 SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  DEN | 67% | Won | 24–14 |
 BALBaltimore Ravens | vs  TEN | 67% | Won | 24–18 |
 CHIChicago Bears | vs  NYJ | 66% | Won | 23–12 |
 BUFBuffalo Bills | vs  NE | 61% | Lost | 26–29 |
 TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | vs  GB | 60% | Lost | 14–17 |
 NONew Orleans Saints | vs  ATL | 60% | Lost | 24–45 |
 CARCarolina Panthers | vs  DET | 58% | Won | 32–26 |
 LVLas Vegas Raiders | vs  KC | 57% | Lost | 27–30 |
 NYGNew York Giants | vs  ARI | 56% | Won | 36–24 |
| CLECleveland Browns | vs  PIT | 56% | Won | 27–24 |
Every Week 4 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT24@CLE27Open matchupThu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 IND30vs WSH13Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET | Final | — | Final |
 ARI24@NYG36Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DAL34@ HOU30Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 GB17@TB14Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 JAX22@ CIN17Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LAR24@ PHI20Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NE29@BUF26Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NYJ12@CHI23Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 TEN18@BAL24Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 MIA10@MIN15Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DEN14@SF24Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 KC30@LV27Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LAC23@SEA30Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DET26@CAR32Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 ATL45@NO24Open matchupMon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
A planning tool for a standard NFL survivor pool: one team per week, each team used once. Your pool sets its own deadlines, tie rules, and entry requirements. Nothing here submits a pick to your pool.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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