Week 5 Survivor Picks (Oct 8–12, 2026)
Week 6 Survivor Picks (Oct 15–19, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Week 5 is final. This page shows results: which picks won and lost.
15 of 15 Week 5 games are final. The model's 3 safest pre-week picks went 1–2: JAX won (66% before the week), DAL lost (64% before the week), CHI lost (60% before the week).
TB24@
DAL16Line not posted yetFinalHow the safest Week 5 picks did
Pre-week win probability from team ratings fit on earlier games only (walk-forward), so it is what the model knew before kickoff.
| Team | Opponent | Pre-week win | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 JAXJacksonville Jaguars | vs  PHI | 66% | Won | 19–17 |
| DALDallas Cowboys | vs  TB | 64% | Lost | 16–24 |
 CHIChicago Bears | @  GB | 60% | Lost | 7–31 |
 NYJNew York Jets | vs  CLE | 58% | Won | 17–12 |
 ATLAtlanta Falcons | vs  BAL | 57% | Lost | 23–30 |
 LARLos Angeles Rams | vs  BUF | 56% | Lost | 34–37 |
 TENTennessee Titans | vs  HOU | 56% | Lost | 3–26 |
 MINMinnesota Vikings | @  NO | 56% | Won | 23–13 |
 PITPittsburgh Steelers | vs  IND | 55% | Won | 34–22 |
 CINCincinnati Bengals | @  MIA | 55% | Won | 31–24 |
 ARIArizona Cardinals | vs  DET | 53% | Lost | 21–45 |
 SEASeattle Seahawks | vs  SF | 52% | Lost | 29–32 |
Every Week 5 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB24@DAL16Open matchupThu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 PHI17vsJAX19Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET | Final | — | Final |
CIN31@ MIA24Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CLE12@NYJ17Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 HOU26@TEN3Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 IND22@PIT34Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LV17@ NE45Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
MIN23@ NO13Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NYG27@ WSH27Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
CHI7@ GB31Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DEN23@ LAC17Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DET45@ARI21Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 SF32@SEA29Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 BAL30@ATL23Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 BUF37@LAR34Open matchupMon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
A planning tool for a standard NFL survivor pool: one team per week, each team used once. Your pool sets its own deadlines, tie rules, and entry requirements. Nothing here submits a pick to your pool.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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