Week 12 Survivor Picks (Nov 25–30, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Model projection. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 12 yet, so every win chance below comes from our team ratings, which are less sure the further off a week is. These numbers will move.
JAX is the safest Week 12 pick at 85% to win vs TEN, from the model projection, followed by CIN (75%) and HOU (72%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 9 remaining weeks 11% of the time and uses JAX on Week 12. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 12 yet, so every win probability here is a model projection and will move.
CHI@
DETLine not posted yetLocks at kickoff, Thu, Nov 26, 12:00 PM CTSafest Week 12 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | vs  TEN | 84.8% | Model | Best | 12% |
| 2 |  CINCincinnati Bengals | vs  NO | 74.7% | Model | -9% | 0% |
| 3 |  HOUHouston Texans | vs  BAL | 71.8% | Model | -13% | 0% |
| 4 |  DALDallas Cowboys | vs  PHI | 68.8% | Model | -17% | 0% |
| 5 |  TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | vs  CAR | 67.8% | Model | -18% | 0% |
| 6 |  MINMinnesota Vikings | vs  ATL | 64.6% | Model | -22% | 0% |
| 7 |  BUFBuffalo Bills | vs  KC | 64.3% | Model | -27% | 6% |
| 8 |  SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  SEA | 61.1% | Model | -30% | 7% |
| 9 |  LARLos Angeles Rams | vs  GB | 60.0% | Model | -27% | 9% |
| 10 |  CLECleveland Browns | vs  LV | 59.0% | Model | -28% | 0% |
| 11 |  NENew England Patriots | @  LAC | 57.9% | Model | -30% | 0% |
| 12 |  PITPittsburgh Steelers | vs  DEN | 57.7% | Model | -34% | 6% |
| 13 |  WSHWashington Commanders | @  ARI | 55.9% | Model | -32% | 0% |
| 14 | DETDetroit Lions | vs  CHI | 53.4% | Model | -41% | 10% |
| 15 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | vs  NYJ | 52.8% | Model | -36% | 0% |
| 16 |  INDIndianapolis Colts | vs  NYG | 49.9% | Model | -39% | 0% |
| 17 |  NYGNew York Giants | @  IND | 49.7% | Model | -40% | 0% |
| 18 |  NYJNew York Jets | @  MIA | 46.8% | Model | -43% | 0% |
| 19 | CHIChicago Bears | @  DET | 46.1% | Model | -44% | 0% |
| 20 |  ARIArizona Cardinals | vs  WSH | 43.6% | Model | -47% | 0% |
| 21 |  DENDenver Broncos | @  PIT | 41.9% | Model | -50% | 2% |
| 22 |  LACLos Angeles Chargers | vs  NE | 41.6% | Model | -49% | 0% |
| 23 |  LVLas Vegas Raiders | @  CLE | 40.6% | Model | -51% | 0% |
| 24 |  GBGreen Bay Packers | @  LAR | 39.6% | Model | -56% | 9% |
| 25 |  SEASeattle Seahawks | @  SF | 38.5% | Model | -53% | 0% |
| 26 |  KCKansas City Chiefs | @  BUF | 35.3% | Model | -58% | 2% |
| 27 |  ATLAtlanta Falcons | @  MIN | 34.9% | Model | -58% | 0% |
| 28 |  CARCarolina Panthers | @  TB | 31.8% | Model | -61% | 0% |
| 29 |  PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | @  DAL | 30.8% | Model | -63% | 0% |
| 30 |  BALBaltimore Ravens | @  HOU | 27.8% | Model | -66% | 0% |
| 31 |  NONew Orleans Saints | @  CIN | 25.0% | Model | -70% | 0% |
| 32 |  TENTennessee Titans | @  JAX | 14.9% | Model | -82% | 0% |
Every Week 12 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB@LAROpen matchupWed, Nov 25, 8:00 PM ET | Wed, Nov 25, 8:00 PM ET | — | GB40%LAR60% | Model |
| CHI@DETOpen matchupThu, Nov 26, 1:00 PM ET | Thu, Nov 26, 1:00 PM ET | — | CHI46%DET53% | Model |
| PHI@DALOpen matchupThu, Nov 26, 4:30 PM ET | Thu, Nov 26, 4:30 PM ET | — | PHI31%DAL69% | Model |
| KC@BUFOpen matchupThu, Nov 26, 8:20 PM ET | Thu, Nov 26, 8:20 PM ET | — | KC35%BUF64% | Model |
| DEN@PITOpen matchupFri, Nov 27, 3:00 PM ET | Fri, Nov 27, 3:00 PM ET | — | DEN42%PIT58% | Model |
| ATL@MINOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | ATL35%MIN65% | Model |
| BAL@HOUOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | BAL28%HOU72% | Model |
| LV@CLEOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | LV41%CLE59% | Model |
| NO@CINOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | NO25%CIN75% | Model |
| NYG@INDOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | NYG50%IND50% | Model |
| NYJ@MIAOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | NYJ47%MIA53% | Model |
| TEN@JAXOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 4:05 PM ET | — | TEN15%JAX85% | Model |
| SEA@SFOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 4:25 PM ET | — | SEA39%SF61% | Model |
| WSH@ARIOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 4:25 PM ET | — | WSH56%ARI44% | Model |
| NE@LACOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 8:20 PM ET | — | NE58%LAC42% | Model |
| CAR@TBOpen matchupMon, Nov 30, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Nov 30, 8:15 PM ET | — | CAR32%TB68% | Model |
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No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Pinnacle lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
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How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
A planning tool for a standard NFL survivor pool: one team per week, each team used once. Your pool sets its own deadlines, tie rules, and entry requirements. Nothing here submits a pick to your pool.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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