Week 3 Survivor Picks (Sep 24–28, 2026)
Week 4 Survivor Picks (Oct 1–5, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Week 3 is final. This page shows results: which picks won and lost.
16 of 16 Week 3 games are final. The model's 3 safest pre-week picks went 2–1: SF won (71% before the week), BUF won (68% before the week), GB lost (65% before the week).
ATL35@
GB14Line not posted yetFinalHow the safest Week 3 picks did
Pre-week win probability from team ratings fit on earlier games only (walk-forward), so it is what the model knew before kickoff.
| Team | Opponent | Pre-week win | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  ARI | 71% | Won | 36–30 |
 BUFBuffalo Bills | vs  LAC | 68% | Won | 24–16 |
| GBGreen Bay Packers | vs  ATL | 65% | Lost | 14–35 |
 CHIChicago Bears | vs  PHI | 61% | Won | 27–7 |
 NYGNew York Giants | vs  TEN | 59% | Won | 12–7 |
 INDIndianapolis Colts | vs  HOU | 57% | Won | 19–17 |
 SEASeattle Seahawks | @  WSH | 56% | Lost | 31–33 |
 KCKansas City Chiefs | @  MIA | 56% | Won | 24–10 |
 JAXJacksonville Jaguars | vs  NE | 55% | Won | 35–6 |
 MINMinnesota Vikings | @  TB | 54% | Won | 23–16 |
 NONew Orleans Saints | vs  LV | 54% | Lost | 27–35 |
 DETDetroit Lions | vs  NYJ | 52% | Won | 31–24 |
Every Week 3 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL35@GB14Open matchupThu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CAR18@ CLE21Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CIN27@ PIT30Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 HOU17@IND19Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
KC24@ MIA10Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LAC16@BUF24Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NYJ24@DET31Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
SEA31@ WSH33Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 TEN7@NYG12Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NE6@JAX35Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 ARI30@SF36Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
MIN23@ TB16Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 BAL34vs DAL31Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LV35@NO27Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LAR26@ DEN30Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 PHI7@CHI27Open matchupMon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
A planning tool for a standard NFL survivor pool: one team per week, each team used once. Your pool sets its own deadlines, tie rules, and entry requirements. Nothing here submits a pick to your pool.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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