Week 18 Survivor Picks (Jan 10, 2027)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Model projection. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 18 yet, so every win chance below comes from our team ratings, which are less sure the further off a week is. These numbers will move.
BUF is the safest Week 18 pick at 82% to win vs NYJ, from the model projection, followed by HOU (77%) and KC (76%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 9 remaining weeks 11% of the time and uses BUF on Week 18. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 18 yet, so every win probability here is a model projection and will move.
Safest Week 18 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUFBuffalo Bills | vs  NYJ | 81.9% | Model | Best | 6% |
| 2 |  HOUHouston Texans | vs  TEN | 76.9% | Model | -2% | 0% |
| 3 |  KCKansas City Chiefs | vs  LV | 75.8% | Model | -3% | 2% |
| 4 |  DENDenver Broncos | vs  LAC | 74.8% | Model | -6% | 2% |
| 5 |  CINCincinnati Bengals | vs  CLE | 74.4% | Model | -5% | 0% |
| 6 |  SFSan Francisco 49ers | @  ARI | 71.8% | Model | -15% | 7% |
| 7 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | @  IND | 71.3% | Model | -20% | 12% |
| 8 |  NENew England Patriots | vs  MIA | 71.2% | Model | -9% | 0% |
| 9 |  NYGNew York Giants | vs  PHI | 66.4% | Model | -15% | 0% |
| 10 |  LARLos Angeles Rams | vs  SEA | 57.5% | Model | -32% | 9% |
| 11 |  PITPittsburgh Steelers | @  BAL | 57.0% | Model | -31% | 6% |
| 12 |  GBGreen Bay Packers | vs  DET | 56.5% | Model | -35% | 9% |
| 13 |  TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | @  NO | 55.0% | Model | -30% | 0% |
| 14 |  WSHWashington Commanders | vs  DAL | 53.8% | Model | -31% | 0% |
| 15 |  CARCarolina Panthers | vs  ATL | 53.7% | Model | -31% | 0% |
| 16 |  MINMinnesota Vikings | vs  CHI | 51.0% | Model | -35% | 0% |
| 17 |  CHIChicago Bears | @  MIN | 48.5% | Model | -38% | 0% |
| 18 |  ATLAtlanta Falcons | @  CAR | 45.9% | Model | -41% | 0% |
| 19 |  DALDallas Cowboys | @  WSH | 45.8% | Model | -42% | 0% |
| 20 |  NONew Orleans Saints | vs  TB | 44.5% | Model | -43% | 0% |
| 21 |  DETDetroit Lions | @  GB | 43.0% | Model | -50% | 10% |
| 22 |  BALBaltimore Ravens | vs  PIT | 42.6% | Model | -46% | 0% |
| 23 |  SEASeattle Seahawks | @  LAR | 42.0% | Model | -46% | 0% |
| 24 |  PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | @  NYG | 33.2% | Model | -58% | 0% |
| 25 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | @  NE | 28.4% | Model | -64% | 0% |
| 26 |  INDIndianapolis Colts | vs  JAX | 28.3% | Model | -64% | 0% |
| 27 |  ARIArizona Cardinals | vs  SF | 27.8% | Model | -64% | 0% |
| 28 |  CLECleveland Browns | @  CIN | 25.3% | Model | -68% | 0% |
| 29 |  LACLos Angeles Chargers | @  DEN | 24.9% | Model | -68% | 0% |
| 30 |  LVLas Vegas Raiders | @  KC | 23.8% | Model | -70% | 0% |
| 31 |  TENTennessee Titans | @  HOU | 22.7% | Model | -71% | 0% |
| 32 |  NYJNew York Jets | @  BUF | 17.8% | Model | -77% | 0% |
Every Week 18 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@CAROpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | ATL46%CAR54% | Model |
| CHI@MINOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | CHI49%MIN51% | Model |
| CLE@CINOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | CLE25%CIN74% | Model |
| DAL@WSHOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | DAL46%WSH54% | Model |
| DET@GBOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | DET43%GB57% | Model |
| JAX@INDOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | JAX71%IND28% | Model |
| LV@KCOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | LV24%KC76% | Model |
| LAC@DENOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | LAC25%DEN75% | Model |
| MIA@NEOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | MIA28%NE71% | Model |
| NYJ@BUFOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | NYJ18%BUF82% | Model |
| PHI@NYGOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | PHI33%NYG66% | Model |
| PIT@BALOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | PIT57%BAL43% | Model |
| SF@ARIOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | SF72%ARI28% | Model |
| SEA@LAROpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | SEA42%LAR58% | Model |
| TB@NOOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | TB55%NO45% | Model |
| TEN@HOUOpen matchupSun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET | — | TEN23%HOU77% | Model |
Public consensus
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No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Pinnacle lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
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How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
A planning tool for a standard NFL survivor pool: one team per week, each team used once. Your pool sets its own deadlines, tie rules, and entry requirements. Nothing here submits a pick to your pool.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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