Week 11 Circa Survivor Picks (Nov 19–23, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
BUF is the safest Week 11 pick at 89% to win vs MIA, from the posted line, followed by KC (85%) and HOU (77%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 11 remaining picks 4.7% of the time and uses KC on Week 11. Using BUF now leaves 97% of that path; it is worth more later.
IND@
HOU
HOU-10Locks at kickoff, Thu, Nov 19, 7:15 PM CTSafest Week 11 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUFBuffalo Bills | vs  MIA | 88.9% | Line | -3% | 9% |
| 2 |  KCKansas City Chiefs | vs  ARI | 85.0% | Line | Best | 5% |
| 3 | HOUHouston Texans | vs  IND | 77.0% | Line | -15% | 6% |
| 4 |  CHIChicago Bears | vs  NO | 75.8% | Line | -11% | 0% |
| 5 |  DENDenver Broncos | vs  LV | 73.5% | Line | -15% | 2% |
| 6 |  DALDallas Cowboys | vs  TEN | 71.0% | Line | -28% | 15% |
| 7 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | @  NYG | 67.0% | Line | -31% | 12% |
| 8 |  PITPittsburgh Steelers | @  PHI | 62.9% | Line | -30% | 6% |
| 9 |  SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  MIN | 60.1% | Line | -34% | 7% |
| 10 |  CINCincinnati Bengals | @  WSH | 60.1% | Line | -29% | 0% |
| 11 |  DETDetroit Lions | vs  TB | 60.1% | Line | -36% | 10% |
| 12 |  LACLos Angeles Chargers | vs  NYJ | 54.2% | Line | -36% | 0% |
| 13 |  CARCarolina Panthers | vs  BAL | 54.2% | Line | -36% | 0% |
| 14 |  NYJNew York Jets | @  LAC | 45.3% | Line | -47% | 0% |
| 15 |  BALBaltimore Ravens | @  CAR | 45.3% | Line | -47% | 0% |
| 16 |  MINMinnesota Vikings | vs  SF | 39.5% | Line | -53% | 0% |
| 17 |  TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | @  DET | 39.5% | Line | -53% | 0% |
| 18 |  WSHWashington Commanders | vs  CIN | 39.5% | Line | -53% | 0% |
| 19 |  PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | vs  PIT | 36.7% | Line | -57% | 0% |
| 20 |  NYGNew York Giants | vs  JAX | 32.6% | Line | -62% | 0% |
| 21 |  TENTennessee Titans | @  DAL | 28.7% | Line | -66% | 0% |
| 22 |  LVLas Vegas Raiders | @  DEN | 26.2% | Line | -69% | 0% |
| 23 |  NONew Orleans Saints | @  CHI | 23.8% | Line | -72% | 0% |
| 24 | INDIndianapolis Colts | @ HOU | 22.7% | Line | -73% | 0% |
| 25 |  ARIArizona Cardinals | @  KC | 14.8% | Line | -83% | 0% |
| 26 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | @  BUF | 10.9% | Line | -87% | 0% |
Circa field forecast · Week 11
Circa’s public selections sheets did not load, so no field forecast is shown. Nothing here is estimated without them.
Value of each team
Future value for Week 11: how much of the rest of the season that team is worth, from the same plan as the picks pages. The number is shown. An account uncovers which team it belongs to.
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Circa's 2026 registration is closed. The Cold Line does not register entries or submit official picks.
Every Week 11 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUOpen matchupThu, Nov 19, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Nov 19, 8:15 PM ET | HOU -10 | IND23%HOU77% | Line |
| ARI@KCOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | KC -14 | ARI15%KC85% | Line |
| BAL@CAROpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | CAR -1.5 | BAL45%CAR54% | Line |
| MIA@BUFOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | BUF -16.5 | MIA11%BUF89% | Line |
| NO@CHIOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | CHI -9.5 | NO24%CHI76% | Line |
| TB@DETOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | DET -3.5 | TB40%DET60% | Line |
| TEN@DALOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | DAL -7.5 | TEN29%DAL71% | Line |
| PIT@PHIOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | PIT -4.5 | PIT63%PHI37% | Line |
| NYJ@LACOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 4:05 PM ET | LAC -1.5 | NYJ45%LAC54% | Line |
| JAX@NYGOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET | JAX -6 | JAX67%NYG33% | Line |
| LV@DENOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET | DEN -8.5 | LV26%DEN73% | Line |
| MINvsSFOpen matchupSun, Nov 22, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Nov 22, 8:20 PM ET | SF -3.5 | MIN40%SF60% | Line |
| CIN@WSHOpen matchupMon, Nov 23, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Nov 23, 8:15 PM ET | CIN -3.5 | CIN60%WSH40% | Line |
Public consensus
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No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Circa Sports lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
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How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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