Week 12 Circa Survivor Picks (Nov 29–30, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Model projection. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 12 yet, so every win chance below comes from our team ratings, which are less sure the further off a week is. These numbers will move.
JAX is the safest Week 12 pick at 85% to win vs TEN, from the model projection, followed by CIN (75%) and HOU (72%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 11 remaining picks 4.7% of the time and uses JAX on Week 12. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 12 yet, so every win probability here is a model projection and will move.
Safest Week 12 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | vs  TEN | 84.8% | Model | Best | 12% |
| 2 |  CINCincinnati Bengals | vs  NO | 74.7% | Model | -9% | 0% |
| 3 |  HOUHouston Texans | vs  BAL | 71.8% | Model | -18% | 6% |
| 4 |  TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | vs  CAR | 67.8% | Model | -18% | 0% |
| 5 |  MINMinnesota Vikings | vs  ATL | 64.6% | Model | -22% | 0% |
| 6 |  SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  SEA | 61.1% | Model | -30% | 7% |
| 7 |  CLECleveland Browns | vs  LV | 59.0% | Model | -28% | 0% |
| 8 |  NENew England Patriots | @  LAC | 57.9% | Model | -30% | 0% |
| 9 |  WSHWashington Commanders | @  ARI | 55.9% | Model | -32% | 0% |
| 10 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | vs  NYJ | 52.8% | Model | -36% | 0% |
| 11 |  INDIndianapolis Colts | vs  NYG | 49.9% | Model | -39% | 0% |
| 12 |  NYGNew York Giants | @  IND | 49.7% | Model | -40% | 0% |
| 13 |  NYJNew York Jets | @  MIA | 46.8% | Model | -43% | 0% |
| 14 |  ARIArizona Cardinals | vs  WSH | 43.6% | Model | -47% | 0% |
| 15 |  LACLos Angeles Chargers | vs  NE | 41.6% | Model | -49% | 0% |
| 16 |  LVLas Vegas Raiders | @  CLE | 40.6% | Model | -51% | 0% |
| 17 |  SEASeattle Seahawks | @  SF | 38.5% | Model | -53% | 0% |
| 18 |  ATLAtlanta Falcons | @  MIN | 34.9% | Model | -58% | 0% |
| 19 |  CARCarolina Panthers | @  TB | 31.8% | Model | -61% | 0% |
| 20 |  BALBaltimore Ravens | @  HOU | 27.8% | Model | -66% | 0% |
| 21 |  NONew Orleans Saints | @  CIN | 25.0% | Model | -70% | 0% |
| 22 |  TENTennessee Titans | @  JAX | 14.9% | Model | -82% | 0% |
Circa field forecast · Week 12
Circa’s public selections sheets did not load, so no field forecast is shown. Nothing here is estimated without them.
Value of each team
Future value for Week 12: how much of the rest of the season that team is worth, from the same plan as the picks pages. The number is shown. An account uncovers which team it belongs to.
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Circa's 2026 registration is closed. The Cold Line does not register entries or submit official picks.
Every Week 12 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@MINOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | ATL35%MIN65% | Model |
| BAL@HOUOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | BAL28%HOU72% | Model |
| LV@CLEOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | LV41%CLE59% | Model |
| NO@CINOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | NO25%CIN75% | Model |
| NYG@INDOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | NYG50%IND50% | Model |
| NYJ@MIAOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET | — | NYJ47%MIA53% | Model |
| TEN@JAXOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 4:05 PM ET | — | TEN15%JAX85% | Model |
| SEA@SFOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 4:25 PM ET | — | SEA39%SF61% | Model |
| WSH@ARIOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 4:25 PM ET | — | WSH56%ARI44% | Model |
| NE@LACOpen matchupSun, Nov 29, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Nov 29, 8:20 PM ET | — | NE58%LAC42% | Model |
| CAR@TBOpen matchupMon, Nov 30, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Nov 30, 8:15 PM ET | — | CAR32%TB68% | Model |
Public consensus
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No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Circa Sports lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
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How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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