Week 3 Circa Survivor Picks (Sep 24–28, 2026)
Week 4 Circa Survivor Picks (Oct 1–5, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Week 3 is final. This page shows results: which picks won and lost.
16 of 16 Week 3 games are final. The model's 3 safest pre-week picks went 2–1: SF won (71% before the week), BUF won (68% before the week), GB lost (65% before the week).
ATL35@
GB14Line not posted yetFinalHow the safest Week 3 picks did
Pre-week win probability from team ratings fit on earlier games only (walk-forward), so it is what the model knew before kickoff.
| Team | Opponent | Pre-week win | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  ARI | 71% | Won | 36–30 |
 BUFBuffalo Bills | vs  LAC | 68% | Won | 24–16 |
| GBGreen Bay Packers | vs  ATL | 65% | Lost | 14–35 |
 CHIChicago Bears | vs  PHI | 61% | Won | 27–7 |
 NYGNew York Giants | vs  TEN | 59% | Won | 12–7 |
 INDIndianapolis Colts | vs  HOU | 57% | Won | 19–17 |
 SEASeattle Seahawks | @  WSH | 56% | Lost | 31–33 |
 KCKansas City Chiefs | @  MIA | 56% | Won | 24–10 |
 JAXJacksonville Jaguars | vs  NE | 55% | Won | 35–6 |
 MINMinnesota Vikings | @  TB | 54% | Won | 23–16 |
 NONew Orleans Saints | vs  LV | 54% | Lost | 27–35 |
 DETDetroit Lions | vs  NYJ | 52% | Won | 31–24 |
Every Week 3 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL35@GB14Open matchupThu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CAR18@ CLE21Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CIN27@ PIT30Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 HOU17@IND19Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
KC24@ MIA10Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LAC16@BUF24Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NYJ24@DET31Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
SEA31@ WSH33Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 TEN7@NYG12Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NE6@JAX35Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 ARI30@SF36Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
MIN23@ TB16Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 BAL34vs DAL31Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LV35@NO27Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LAR26@ DEN30Open matchupSun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 PHI7@CHI27Open matchupMon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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