Week 4 Circa Survivor Picks (Oct 1–5, 2026)
Week 5 Circa Survivor Picks (Oct 8–12, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Week 4 is final. This page shows results: which picks won and lost.
16 of 16 Week 4 games are final. The model's 3 safest pre-week picks went 3–0: MIN won (74% before the week), SEA won (71% before the week), SF won (67% before the week).
PIT24@
CLE27Line not posted yetFinalHow the safest Week 4 picks did
Pre-week win probability from team ratings fit on earlier games only (walk-forward), so it is what the model knew before kickoff.
| Team | Opponent | Pre-week win | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 MINMinnesota Vikings | vs  MIA | 74% | Won | 15–10 |
 SEASeattle Seahawks | vs  LAC | 71% | Won | 30–23 |
 SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  DEN | 67% | Won | 24–14 |
 BALBaltimore Ravens | vs  TEN | 67% | Won | 24–18 |
 CHIChicago Bears | vs  NYJ | 66% | Won | 23–12 |
 BUFBuffalo Bills | vs  NE | 61% | Lost | 26–29 |
 TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | vs  GB | 60% | Lost | 14–17 |
 NONew Orleans Saints | vs  ATL | 60% | Lost | 24–45 |
 CARCarolina Panthers | vs  DET | 58% | Won | 32–26 |
 LVLas Vegas Raiders | vs  KC | 57% | Lost | 27–30 |
 NYGNew York Giants | vs  ARI | 56% | Won | 36–24 |
| CLECleveland Browns | vs  PIT | 56% | Won | 27–24 |
Every Week 4 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT24@CLE27Open matchupThu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 IND30vs WSH13Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET | Final | — | Final |
 ARI24@NYG36Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DAL34@ HOU30Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 GB17@TB14Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 JAX22@ CIN17Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LAR24@ PHI20Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NE29@BUF26Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NYJ12@CHI23Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 TEN18@BAL24Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 MIA10@MIN15Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DEN14@SF24Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 KC30@LV27Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LAC23@SEA30Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DET26@CAR32Open matchupSun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 ATL45@NO24Open matchupMon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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