Week 5 Circa Survivor Picks (Oct 8–12, 2026)
Week 6 Circa Survivor Picks (Oct 15–19, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Week 5 is final. This page shows results: which picks won and lost.
15 of 15 Week 5 games are final. The model's 3 safest pre-week picks went 1–2: JAX won (66% before the week), DAL lost (64% before the week), CHI lost (60% before the week).
TB24@
DAL16Line not posted yetFinalHow the safest Week 5 picks did
Pre-week win probability from team ratings fit on earlier games only (walk-forward), so it is what the model knew before kickoff.
| Team | Opponent | Pre-week win | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 JAXJacksonville Jaguars | vs  PHI | 66% | Won | 19–17 |
| DALDallas Cowboys | vs  TB | 64% | Lost | 16–24 |
 CHIChicago Bears | @  GB | 60% | Lost | 7–31 |
 NYJNew York Jets | vs  CLE | 58% | Won | 17–12 |
 ATLAtlanta Falcons | vs  BAL | 57% | Lost | 23–30 |
 LARLos Angeles Rams | vs  BUF | 56% | Lost | 34–37 |
 TENTennessee Titans | vs  HOU | 56% | Lost | 3–26 |
 MINMinnesota Vikings | @  NO | 56% | Won | 23–13 |
 PITPittsburgh Steelers | vs  IND | 55% | Won | 34–22 |
 CINCincinnati Bengals | @  MIA | 55% | Won | 31–24 |
 ARIArizona Cardinals | vs  DET | 53% | Lost | 21–45 |
 SEASeattle Seahawks | vs  SF | 52% | Lost | 29–32 |
Every Week 5 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB24@DAL16Open matchupThu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 PHI17vsJAX19Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET | Final | — | Final |
CIN31@ MIA24Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CLE12@NYJ17Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 HOU26@TEN3Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 IND22@PIT34Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LV17@ NE45Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
MIN23@ NO13Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NYG27@ WSH27Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
CHI7@ GB31Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DEN23@ LAC17Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DET45@ARI21Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 SF32@SEA29Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 BAL30@ATL23Open matchupSun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 BUF37@LAR34Open matchupMon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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