Week 13 Circa Survivor Picks (Dec 3–7, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Model projection. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 13 yet, so every win chance below comes from our team ratings, which are less sure the further off a week is. These numbers will move.
DEN is the safest Week 13 pick at 75% to win vs MIA, from the model projection, followed by TB (74%) and MIN (68%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 11 remaining picks 4.7% of the time and uses DEN on Week 13. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 13 yet, so every win probability here is a model projection and will move.
KC@
LARLine not posted yetLocks at kickoff, Thu, Dec 3, 7:15 PM CTSafest Week 13 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DENDenver Broncos | vs  MIA | 75.3% | Model | Best | 2% |
| 2 |  TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | vs  LAC | 73.8% | Model | -2% | 0% |
| 3 |  MINMinnesota Vikings | vs  CAR | 67.5% | Model | -10% | 0% |
| 4 |  SEASeattle Seahawks | vs  DAL | 66.1% | Model | -12% | 0% |
| 5 |  CINCincinnati Bengals | @  CLE | 62.1% | Model | -18% | 0% |
| 6 |  BUFBuffalo Bills | @  NE | 60.3% | Model | -27% | 9% |
| 7 |  SFSan Francisco 49ers | @  NYG | 59.3% | Model | -27% | 7% |
| 8 |  GBGreen Bay Packers | @  NO | 56.9% | Model | -32% | 9% |
| 9 | LARLos Angeles Rams | vs  KC | 55.4% | Model | -33% | 9% |
| 10 |  PITPittsburgh Steelers | vs  HOU | 55.1% | Model | -31% | 6% |
| 11 |  DETDetroit Lions | @  ATL | 53.2% | Model | -36% | 10% |
| 12 |  ARIArizona Cardinals | vs  PHI | 53.2% | Model | -29% | 0% |
| 13 |  WSHWashington Commanders | @  TEN | 52.8% | Model | -30% | 0% |
| 14 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | @  CHI | 52.0% | Model | -39% | 12% |
| 15 |  CHIChicago Bears | vs  JAX | 47.5% | Model | -37% | 0% |
| 16 |  TENTennessee Titans | vs  WSH | 46.7% | Model | -38% | 0% |
| 17 |  PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | @  ARI | 46.4% | Model | -38% | 0% |
| 18 |  ATLAtlanta Falcons | vs  DET | 46.4% | Model | -38% | 0% |
| 19 |  HOUHouston Texans | @  PIT | 44.4% | Model | -45% | 6% |
| 20 | KCKansas City Chiefs | @  LAR | 44.2% | Model | -44% | 5% |
| 21 |  NONew Orleans Saints | vs  GB | 42.7% | Model | -43% | 0% |
| 22 |  NYGNew York Giants | vs  SF | 40.3% | Model | -47% | 0% |
| 23 |  NENew England Patriots | vs  BUF | 39.3% | Model | -48% | 0% |
| 24 |  CLECleveland Browns | vs  CIN | 37.5% | Model | -50% | 0% |
| 25 |  DALDallas Cowboys | @  SEA | 33.5% | Model | -62% | 15% |
| 26 |  CARCarolina Panthers | @  MIN | 32.0% | Model | -57% | 0% |
| 27 |  LACLos Angeles Chargers | @  TB | 25.8% | Model | -66% | 0% |
| 28 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | @  DEN | 24.4% | Model | -68% | 0% |
Circa field forecast · Week 13
Circa’s public selections sheets did not load, so no field forecast is shown. Nothing here is estimated without them.
Value of each team
Future value for Week 13: how much of the rest of the season that team is worth, from the same plan as the picks pages. The number is shown. An account uncovers which team it belongs to.
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Circa's 2026 registration is closed. The Cold Line does not register entries or submit official picks.
Every Week 13 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LAROpen matchupThu, Dec 3, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Dec 3, 8:15 PM ET | — | KC44%LAR55% | Model |
| SF@NYGOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | — | SF59%NYG40% | Model |
| CIN@CLEOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | — | CIN62%CLE38% | Model |
| DET@ATLOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | — | DET53%ATL46% | Model |
| GB@NOOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | — | GB57%NO43% | Model |
| JAX@CHIOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | — | JAX52%CHI48% | Model |
| LAC@TBOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | — | LAC26%TB74% | Model |
| WSH@TENOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET | — | WSH53%TEN47% | Model |
| MIA@DENOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 4:05 PM ET | — | MIA24%DEN75% | Model |
| PHI@ARIOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 4:05 PM ET | — | PHI46%ARI53% | Model |
| BUF@NEOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET | — | BUF60%NE39% | Model |
| CAR@MINOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET | — | CAR32%MIN68% | Model |
| HOU@PITOpen matchupSun, Dec 6, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Dec 6, 8:20 PM ET | — | HOU44%PIT55% | Model |
| DAL@SEAOpen matchupMon, Dec 7, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Dec 7, 8:15 PM ET | — | DAL33%SEA66% | Model |
Public consensus
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No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Circa Sports lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
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How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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