Week 16 Circa Survivor Picks (Dec 27–28, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Model projection. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 16 yet, so every win chance below comes from our team ratings, which are less sure the further off a week is. These numbers will move.
PIT is the safest Week 16 pick at 70% to win vs CAR, from the model projection, followed by DET (66%) and NO (66%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 11 remaining picks 4.7% of the time and uses PIT on Week 16. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 16 yet, so every win probability here is a model projection and will move.
Safest Week 16 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PITPittsburgh Steelers | vs  CAR | 69.7% | Model | Best | 6% |
| 2 |  DETDetroit Lions | vs  NYG | 66.3% | Model | -14% | 10% |
| 3 |  NONew Orleans Saints | vs  ARI | 65.8% | Model | -6% | 0% |
| 4 |  MINMinnesota Vikings | vs  WSH | 64.7% | Model | -7% | 0% |
| 5 |  CINCincinnati Bengals | @  IND | 64.5% | Model | -7% | 0% |
| 6 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | @  DAL | 62.9% | Model | -21% | 12% |
| 7 |  LVLas Vegas Raiders | vs  TEN | 60.8% | Model | -13% | 0% |
| 8 |  BALBaltimore Ravens | vs  CLE | 57.1% | Model | -18% | 0% |
| 9 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | vs  LAC | 56.4% | Model | -19% | 0% |
| 10 |  KCKansas City Chiefs | vs  SF | 54.8% | Model | -25% | 5% |
| 11 |  NENew England Patriots | @  NYJ | 54.3% | Model | -22% | 0% |
| 12 |  TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | @  ATL | 51.1% | Model | -27% | 0% |
| 13 |  ATLAtlanta Falcons | vs  TB | 48.4% | Model | -31% | 0% |
| 14 |  NYJNew York Jets | vs  NE | 45.3% | Model | -35% | 0% |
| 15 |  SFSan Francisco 49ers | @  KC | 44.8% | Model | -40% | 7% |
| 16 |  LACLos Angeles Chargers | @  MIA | 43.2% | Model | -38% | 0% |
| 17 |  CLECleveland Browns | @  BAL | 42.5% | Model | -39% | 0% |
| 18 |  TENTennessee Titans | @  LV | 38.8% | Model | -44% | 0% |
| 19 |  DALDallas Cowboys | vs  JAX | 36.7% | Model | -55% | 15% |
| 20 |  INDIndianapolis Colts | vs  CIN | 35.0% | Model | -50% | 0% |
| 21 |  WSHWashington Commanders | @  MIN | 34.9% | Model | -50% | 0% |
| 22 |  ARIArizona Cardinals | @  NO | 33.8% | Model | -51% | 0% |
| 23 |  NYGNew York Giants | @  DET | 33.3% | Model | -52% | 0% |
| 24 |  CARCarolina Panthers | @  PIT | 29.9% | Model | -57% | 0% |
Circa field forecast · Week 16
Circa’s public selections sheets did not load, so no field forecast is shown. Nothing here is estimated without them.
Value of each team
Future value for Week 16: how much of the rest of the season that team is worth, from the same plan as the picks pages. The number is shown. An account uncovers which team it belongs to.
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Circa's 2026 registration is closed. The Cold Line does not register entries or submit official picks.
Every Week 16 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@PITOpen matchupSun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET | — | CAR30%PIT70% | Model |
| CIN@INDOpen matchupSun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET | — | CIN65%IND35% | Model |
| TB@ATLOpen matchupSun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET | — | TB51%ATL48% | Model |
| WSH@MINOpen matchupSun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET | — | WSH35%MIN65% | Model |
| ARI@NOOpen matchupSun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | ARI34%NO66% | Model |
| CLE@BALOpen matchupSun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | CLE43%BAL57% | Model |
| LAC@MIAOpen matchupSun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | LAC43%MIA56% | Model |
| NE@NYJOpen matchupSun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | NE54%NYJ45% | Model |
| TEN@LVOpen matchupSun, Dec 27, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Dec 27, 4:05 PM ET | — | TEN39%LV61% | Model |
| SF@KCOpen matchupSun, Dec 27, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Dec 27, 4:25 PM ET | — | SF45%KC55% | Model |
| JAX@DALOpen matchupSun, Dec 27, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Dec 27, 8:20 PM ET | — | JAX63%DAL37% | Model |
| NYG@DETOpen matchupMon, Dec 28, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Dec 28, 8:15 PM ET | — | NYG33%DET66% | Model |
Public consensus
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No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Circa Sports lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
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How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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