Week 6 Circa Survivor Picks (Oct 15–19, 2026)
Week 7 Circa Survivor Picks (Oct 22–26, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Week 6 is final. This page shows results: which picks won and lost.
14 of 14 Week 6 games are final. The model's 3 safest pre-week picks went 2–1: KC won (74% before the week), SF won (74% before the week), LAR lost (68% before the week). Circa's public sheet lists 2,909 entries for Week 6; 1,633 were eliminated and 1,277 survived.
SEA14@
DEN17Line not posted yetFinalHow the safest Week 6 picks did
Pre-week win probability from team ratings fit on earlier games only (walk-forward), so it is what the model knew before kickoff.
| Team | Opponent | Pre-week win | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 KCKansas City Chiefs | vs  LAC | 74% | Won | 22–6 |
 SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  WSH | 74% | Won | 23–17 |
 LARLos Angeles Rams | vs  ARI | 68% | Lost | 16–18 |
 INDIndianapolis Colts | vs  TEN | 66% | Lost | 20–26 |
 NENew England Patriots | vs  NYJ | 64% | Won | 26–19 |
 JAXJacksonville Jaguars | vs  HOU | 61% | Lost | 31–34 |
 NYGNew York Giants | vs  NO | 61% | Lost | 27–34 |
 GBGreen Bay Packers | vs  DAL | 58% | Won | 23–13 |
 ATLAtlanta Falcons | vs  CHI | 54% | Lost | 23–31 |
 TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | vs  PIT | 54% | Lost | 19–26 |
 LVLas Vegas Raiders | vs  BUF | 52% | Lost | 30–33 |
| DENDenver Broncos | vs  SEA | 51% | Won | 17–14 |
Circa field · Week 6
From Circa’s public selections sheet. 2,909 entries listed. 1,633 eliminated. 1,277 survived.
| Team | Entries | Result |
|---|---|---|
| LAR | 901 | Lost |
| NE | 821 | Won |
| IND | 703 | Lost |
| KC | 188 | Won |
| CAR | 124 | Won |
| SF | 119 | Won |
| BUF | 13 | Won |
| BAL | 9 | Lost |
| NYG | 7 | Lost |
| PIT | 6 | Won |
| DAL | 4 | Lost |
| NO | 4 | Won |
Every Week 6 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA14@DEN17Open matchupThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 HOU34vsJAX31Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | Final | — | Final |
 BAL10@ CLE13Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CAR25@ PHI14Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CHI31@ATL23Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NO34@NYG27Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NYJ19@NE26Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 PIT26@TB19Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 TEN26@IND20Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 ARI18@LAR16Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 BUF33@LV30Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LAC6@KC22Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DAL13@GB23Open matchupSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 WSH17@SF23Open matchupMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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