Circa Week 17 Picks (Dec 31, 2026–Jan 4, 2027)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Model projection. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 17 yet, so every win chance below comes from our team ratings, which are less sure the further off a week is. These numbers will move.
SF is the safest Week 17 pick at 80% to win vs PHI, from the model projection, followed by JAX (78%) and BUF (75%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 11 remaining picks 4.7% of the time and uses SF on Week 17. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 17 yet, so every win probability here is a model projection and will move.
BAL@
CINLine not posted yetLocks at kickoff, Thu, Dec 31, 7:15 PM CTSafest Week 17 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  PHI | 79.8% | Model | Best | 7% |
| 2 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | vs  WSH | 77.6% | Model | -14% | 12% |
| 3 |  BUFBuffalo Bills | @  MIA | 74.5% | Model | -15% | 9% |
| 4 | CINCincinnati Bengals | vs  BAL | 74.3% | Model | -7% | 0% |
| 5 |  KCKansas City Chiefs | @  LAC | 67.4% | Model | -20% | 5% |
| 6 |  PITPittsburgh Steelers | @  TEN | 63.3% | Model | -25% | 6% |
| 7 |  ATLAtlanta Falcons | vs  NO | 60.6% | Model | -24% | 0% |
| 8 |  CHIChicago Bears | vs  DET | 60.1% | Model | -25% | 0% |
| 9 |  CLECleveland Browns | vs  IND | 59.4% | Model | -26% | 0% |
| 10 |  DALDallas Cowboys | vs  NYG | 59.2% | Model | -37% | 15% |
| 11 |  SEASeattle Seahawks | @  CAR | 58.4% | Model | -27% | 0% |
| 12 |  MINMinnesota Vikings | @  NYJ | 57.3% | Model | -28% | 0% |
| 13 |  GBGreen Bay Packers | vs  HOU | 54.6% | Model | -37% | 9% |
| 14 |  NENew England Patriots | vs  DEN | 52.0% | Model | -35% | 0% |
| 15 |  TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | vs  LAR | 51.6% | Model | -35% | 0% |
| 16 |  LVLas Vegas Raiders | @  ARI | 49.9% | Model | -37% | 0% |
| 17 |  ARIArizona Cardinals | vs  LV | 49.6% | Model | -38% | 0% |
| 18 |  LARLos Angeles Rams | @  TB | 47.9% | Model | -46% | 9% |
| 19 |  DENDenver Broncos | @  NE | 47.5% | Model | -42% | 2% |
| 20 |  HOUHouston Texans | @  GB | 45.0% | Model | -47% | 6% |
| 21 |  NYJNew York Jets | vs  MIN | 42.2% | Model | -47% | 0% |
| 22 |  CARCarolina Panthers | vs  SEA | 41.1% | Model | -48% | 0% |
| 23 |  NYGNew York Giants | @  DAL | 40.3% | Model | -49% | 0% |
| 24 |  INDIndianapolis Colts | @  CLE | 40.2% | Model | -50% | 0% |
| 25 |  DETDetroit Lions | @  CHI | 39.5% | Model | -55% | 10% |
| 26 |  NONew Orleans Saints | @  ATL | 39.0% | Model | -51% | 0% |
| 27 |  TENTennessee Titans | vs  PIT | 36.2% | Model | -55% | 0% |
| 28 |  LACLos Angeles Chargers | vs  KC | 32.2% | Model | -60% | 0% |
| 29 | BALBaltimore Ravens | @  CIN | 25.4% | Model | -68% | 0% |
| 30 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | vs  BUF | 25.1% | Model | -69% | 0% |
| 31 |  WSHWashington Commanders | @  JAX | 22.1% | Model | -72% | 0% |
| 32 |  PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | @  SF | 19.9% | Model | -75% | 0% |
Circa field forecast · Week 17
Circa’s public selections sheets did not load, so no field forecast is shown. Nothing here is estimated without them.
Value of each team
Future value for Week 17: how much of the rest of the season that team is worth, from the same plan as the picks pages. The number is shown. An account uncovers which team it belongs to.
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Circa's 2026 registration is closed. The Cold Line does not register entries or submit official picks.
Every Week 17 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINOpen matchupThu, Dec 31, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Dec 31, 8:15 PM ET | — | BAL25%CIN74% | Model |
| DEN@NEOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM ET | — | DEN48%NE52% | Model |
| KC@LACOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM ET | — | KC67%LAC32% | Model |
| LAR@TBOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM ET | — | LAR48%TB52% | Model |
| WSH@JAXOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM ET | — | WSH22%JAX78% | Model |
| BUF@MIAOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | — | BUF75%MIA25% | Model |
| IND@CLEOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | — | IND40%CLE59% | Model |
| MIN@NYJOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | — | MIN57%NYJ42% | Model |
| NO@ATLOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | — | NO39%ATL61% | Model |
| NYG@DALOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | — | NYG40%DAL59% | Model |
| PIT@TENOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | — | PIT63%TEN36% | Model |
| SEA@CAROpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET | — | SEA58%CAR41% | Model |
| LV@ARIOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 4:05 PM ET | — | LV50%ARI50% | Model |
| DET@CHIOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 4:25 PM ET | — | DET40%CHI60% | Model |
| PHI@SFOpen matchupSun, Jan 3, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Jan 3, 8:20 PM ET | — | PHI20%SF80% | Model |
| HOU@GBOpen matchupMon, Jan 4, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Jan 4, 8:15 PM ET | — | HOU45%GB55% | Model |
Public consensus
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No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Circa Sports lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
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How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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