Christmas Circa Survivor Picks (Dec 24–25, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Model projection. No sportsbook line is posted for Christmas yet, so every win chance below comes from our team ratings, which are less sure the further off a week is. These numbers will move.
HOU is the safest Christmas pick at 64% to win @ PHI, from the model projection, followed by CHI (60%) and SEA (56%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 11 remaining picks 4.7% of the time and uses HOU on Christmas. No sportsbook line is posted for Christmas yet, so every win probability here is a model projection and will move.
HOU@
PHILine not posted yetLocks at kickoff, Thu, Dec 24, 7:15 PM CTSafest Christmas survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOUHouston Texans | @  PHI | 64.4% | Model | Best | 6% |
| 2 |  CHIChicago Bears | vs  GB | 60.3% | Model | -6% | 0% |
| 3 |  SEASeattle Seahawks | vs  LAR | 55.9% | Model | -13% | 0% |
| 4 |  BUFBuffalo Bills | @  DEN | 55.6% | Model | -19% | 9% |
| 5 |  DENDenver Broncos | vs  BUF | 44.0% | Model | -33% | 2% |
| 6 |  LARLos Angeles Rams | @  SEA | 43.7% | Model | -38% | 9% |
| 7 |  GBGreen Bay Packers | @  CHI | 39.3% | Model | -45% | 9% |
| 8 | PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | vs  HOU | 35.2% | Model | -45% | 0% |
Circa field forecast · Christmas
Circa’s public selections sheets did not load, so no field forecast is shown. Nothing here is estimated without them.
Value of each team
Future value for Christmas: how much of the rest of the season that team is worth, from the same plan as the picks pages. The number is shown. An account uncovers which team it belongs to.
- Hidden9%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden9%
- Hidden2%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden6%
- Hidden9%
Circa's 2026 registration is closed. The Cold Line does not register entries or submit official picks.
Every Christmas game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@PHIOpen matchupThu, Dec 24, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Dec 24, 8:15 PM ET | — | HOU64%PHI35% | Model |
| GB@CHIOpen matchupFri, Dec 25, 1:00 PM ET | Fri, Dec 25, 1:00 PM ET | — | GB39%CHI60% | Model |
| BUF@DENOpen matchupFri, Dec 25, 4:30 PM ET | Fri, Dec 25, 4:30 PM ET | — | BUF56%DEN44% | Model |
| LAR@SEAOpen matchupFri, Dec 25, 8:15 PM ET | Fri, Dec 25, 8:15 PM ET | — | LAR44%SEA56% | Model |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Circa Sports lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
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How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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