Week 2 Circa Survivor Picks (Sep 17–21, 2026)
Week 3 Circa Survivor Picks (Sep 24–28, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Week 2 is final. This page shows results: which picks won and lost.
16 of 16 Week 2 games are final. The model's 3 safest pre-week picks went 2–1: KC won (68% before the week), SF won (66% before the week), NYJ lost (65% before the week).
DET31@
BUF41Line not posted yetFinalHow the safest Week 2 picks did
Pre-week win probability from team ratings fit on earlier games only (walk-forward), so it is what the model knew before kickoff.
| Team | Opponent | Pre-week win | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 KCKansas City Chiefs | vs  IND | 68% | Won | 33–30 |
 SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  MIA | 66% | Won | 35–13 |
 NYJNew York Jets | vs  GB | 65% | Lost | 17–20 |
 ATLAtlanta Falcons | vs  CAR | 62% | Lost | 3–34 |
 BALBaltimore Ravens | vs  NO | 62% | Lost | 17–24 |
 TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | vs  CLE | 62% | Lost | 19–23 |
 ARIArizona Cardinals | vs  SEA | 61% | Lost | 7–31 |
 CHIChicago Bears | vs  MIN | 59% | Lost | 3–9 |
| BUFBuffalo Bills | vs  DET | 59% | Won | 41–31 |
 JAXJacksonville Jaguars | @  DEN | 56% | Lost | 13–20 |
 NENew England Patriots | vs  PIT | 55% | Won | 20–3 |
 DALDallas Cowboys | vs  WSH | 54% | Won | 37–20 |
Every Week 2 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET31@BUF41Open matchupThu, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CAR34@ATL3Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CIN20@ HOU6Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CLE23@TB19Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 GB20@NYJ17Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 MIN9@CHI3Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NO24@BAL17Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 PHI24@ TEN20Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 PIT3@NE20Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
JAX13@ DEN20Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LV26@ LAC14Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 MIA13@SF35Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 SEA31@ARI7Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 WSH20@DAL37Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 IND30@KC33Open matchupSun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NYG6@ LAR28Open matchupMon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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