Week 15 Circa Survivor Picks (Dec 17–21, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Model projection. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 15 yet, so every win chance below comes from our team ratings, which are less sure the further off a week is. These numbers will move.
GB is the safest Week 15 pick at 76% to win vs MIA, from the model projection, followed by PIT (70%) and SF (69%). The highest-survival full-season path from here survives all 11 remaining picks 4.7% of the time and uses GB on Week 15. No sportsbook line is posted for Week 15 yet, so every win probability here is a model projection and will move.
SF@
LACLine not posted yetLocks at kickoff, Thu, Dec 17, 7:15 PM CTSafest Week 15 survivor picks
Ranked by win probability (a tie counts as a loss). Path if used: your best chance to survive the rest of the season if you use this team now, compared with the best plan. Future Value: how much that chance drops if the team were gone; the higher it is, the more it pays to save the team. Counted for a fresh plan with no teams used yet.
| # | Team | Opponent | Win | Source | Path if used | Future value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GBGreen Bay Packers | vs  MIA | 75.5% | Model | Best | 9% |
| 2 |  PITPittsburgh Steelers | vs  BAL | 70.2% | Model | -12% | 6% |
| 3 | SFSan Francisco 49ers | @  LAC | 69.2% | Model | -15% | 7% |
| 4 |  TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | vs  NO | 68.4% | Model | -9% | 0% |
| 5 |  LARLos Angeles Rams | vs  DAL | 66.9% | Model | -20% | 9% |
| 6 |  KCKansas City Chiefs | vs  NE | 66.2% | Model | -17% | 5% |
| 7 |  BUFBuffalo Bills | vs  CHI | 65.2% | Model | -22% | 9% |
| 8 |  SEASeattle Seahawks | @  PHI | 64.6% | Model | -14% | 0% |
| 9 |  CINCincinnati Bengals | @  CAR | 61.3% | Model | -19% | 0% |
| 10 |  NYGNew York Giants | vs  CLE | 61.0% | Model | -19% | 0% |
| 11 |  DENDenver Broncos | @  LV | 58.7% | Model | -24% | 2% |
| 12 |  WSHWashington Commanders | vs  ATL | 56.6% | Model | -25% | 0% |
| 13 |  MINMinnesota Vikings | vs  DET | 54.5% | Model | -28% | 0% |
| 14 |  JAXJacksonville Jaguars | @  HOU | 53.5% | Model | -38% | 12% |
| 15 |  TENTennessee Titans | vs  IND | 53.2% | Model | -30% | 0% |
| 16 |  ARIArizona Cardinals | vs  NYJ | 50.0% | Model | -34% | 0% |
| 17 |  NYJNew York Jets | @  ARI | 49.5% | Model | -34% | 0% |
| 18 |  INDIndianapolis Colts | @  TEN | 46.4% | Model | -39% | 0% |
| 19 |  HOUHouston Texans | vs  JAX | 46.0% | Model | -43% | 6% |
| 20 |  DETDetroit Lions | @  MIN | 45.1% | Model | -46% | 10% |
| 21 |  ATLAtlanta Falcons | @  WSH | 42.9% | Model | -43% | 0% |
| 22 |  LVLas Vegas Raiders | vs  DEN | 40.9% | Model | -46% | 0% |
| 23 |  CLECleveland Browns | @  NYG | 38.6% | Model | -49% | 0% |
| 24 |  CARCarolina Panthers | vs  CIN | 38.3% | Model | -49% | 0% |
| 25 |  PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | vs  SEA | 35.0% | Model | -54% | 0% |
| 26 |  CHIChicago Bears | @  BUF | 34.4% | Model | -54% | 0% |
| 27 |  NENew England Patriots | @  KC | 33.3% | Model | -56% | 0% |
| 28 |  DALDallas Cowboys | @  LAR | 32.7% | Model | -63% | 15% |
| 29 |  NONew Orleans Saints | @  TB | 31.2% | Model | -59% | 0% |
| 30 | LACLos Angeles Chargers | vs  SF | 30.4% | Model | -60% | 0% |
| 31 |  BALBaltimore Ravens | @  PIT | 29.4% | Model | -61% | 0% |
| 32 |  MIAMiami Dolphins | @  GB | 24.1% | Model | -68% | 0% |
Circa field forecast · Week 15
Circa’s public selections sheets did not load, so no field forecast is shown. Nothing here is estimated without them.
Value of each team
Future value for Week 15: how much of the rest of the season that team is worth, from the same plan as the picks pages. The number is shown. An account uncovers which team it belongs to.
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden9%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden6%
- Hidden9%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden9%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden5%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden6%
- Hidden12%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden7%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden2%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden10%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden15%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
- Hidden0%
Circa's 2026 registration is closed. The Cold Line does not register entries or submit official picks.
Every Week 15 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF@LACOpen matchupThu, Dec 17, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Dec 17, 8:15 PM ET | — | SF69%LAC30% | Model |
| SEA@PHIOpen matchupSat, Dec 19, 5:00 PM ET | Sat, Dec 19, 5:00 PM ET | — | SEA65%PHI35% | Model |
| CHI@BUFOpen matchupSat, Dec 19, 8:20 PM ET | Sat, Dec 19, 8:20 PM ET | — | CHI34%BUF65% | Model |
| ATL@WSHOpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | — | ATL43%WSH57% | Model |
| BAL@PITOpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | — | BAL29%PIT70% | Model |
| CIN@CAROpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | — | CIN61%CAR38% | Model |
| CLE@NYGOpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | — | CLE39%NYG61% | Model |
| IND@TENOpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | — | IND46%TEN53% | Model |
| JAX@HOUOpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | — | JAX54%HOU46% | Model |
| MIA@GBOpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | — | MIA24%GB76% | Model |
| NO@TBOpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | — | NO31%TB68% | Model |
| NYJ@ARIOpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 4:05 PM ET | — | NYJ50%ARI50% | Model |
| DAL@LAROpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 4:25 PM ET | — | DAL33%LAR67% | Model |
| DEN@LVOpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 4:25 PM ET | — | DEN59%LV41% | Model |
| DET@MINOpen matchupSun, Dec 20, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Dec 20, 8:20 PM ET | — | DET45%MIN54% | Model |
| NE@KCOpen matchupMon, Dec 21, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Dec 21, 8:15 PM ET | — | NE33%KC66% | Model |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
No-vig fair value moneyline
Fair value from 
Circa Sports lines. The book's cut is divided out of its two-sided price. These are fair-value estimates, not predictions. Free with an account.
Loading fair value…
How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
Create a free account
Keep the Week 15 board, then plan the rest of the season from your own account.
Free Rookie account. No payment today. Pro $29.99/mo and Sharp $99.99/mo. Launch rates through June 30, 2027. Telegram alerts $4.95/mo. Watty & Penny AI $4.95/mo.
- Create the free account.
- Confirm the email we send.
- Sign in. Pro and Sharp stay optional.