Week 9 Circa Survivor Picks (Nov 5–9, 2026)
Week 10 Circa Survivor Picks (Nov 12–16, 2026)
Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:16 PM ET · numbers refresh about every 15 minutes
Week 9 is final. This page shows results: which picks won and lost.
15 of 15 Week 9 games are final. The model's 3 safest pre-week picks went 3–0: SEA won (69% before the week), SF won (66% before the week), KC won (65% before the week).
JAX33@
BAL10Line not posted yetFinalHow the safest Week 9 picks did
Pre-week win probability from team ratings fit on earlier games only (walk-forward), so it is what the model knew before kickoff.
| Team | Opponent | Pre-week win | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 SEASeattle Seahawks | vs  ARI | 69% | Won | 17–3 |
 SFSan Francisco 49ers | vs  LV | 66% | Won | 38–17 |
 KCKansas City Chiefs | vs  NYJ | 65% | Won | 35–12 |
 CHIChicago Bears | vs  TB | 61% | Won | 27–24 |
| JAXJacksonville Jaguars | @  BAL | 60% | Won | 33–10 |
 CINCincinnati Bengals | vs  ATL | 60% | Won | 34–17 |
 NENew England Patriots | vs  GB | 60% | Lost | 27–45 |
 MINMinnesota Vikings | vs  BUF | 56% | Lost | 6–23 |
 NONew Orleans Saints | vs  CLE | 56% | Won | 23–22 |
 DETDetroit Lions | @  MIA | 56% | Won | 19–9 |
 HOUHouston Texans | @  LAC | 55% | Won | 44–22 |
 NYGNew York Giants | @  PHI | 54% | Won | 19–11 |
Every Week 9 game: win probability
Line = a sportsbook’s point spread turned into a win chance. Model = our team ratings, used where no line is posted yet. Open a game for its matchup.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Line | Win odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX33@BAL10Open matchupThu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET | Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
CIN34vs ATL17Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET | Final | — | Final |
 CLE22@NO23Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DAL27@ IND23Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 DEN26@ CAR21Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
DET19@ MIA9Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LAR20@ WSH13Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
NYG19@ PHI11Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 NYJ12@KC35Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
HOU44@ LAC22Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 LV17@SF38Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 ARI3@SEA17Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 GB45@NE27Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 TB24@CHI27Open matchupSun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET | Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
 BUF23@MIN6Open matchupMon, Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET | Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET | Final | — | Final |
Public consensus
Loading public consensus.
How these numbers are made
Team ratings are fit to this season’s final scores and posted spreads. A game with a posted line uses the line; a game further out uses the ratings, with wider uncertainty for each week ahead. Future Value comes from the same season plan the planner makes, counted for a fresh plan with no teams used.
Unofficial. This planner is unofficial. It does not enter Circa Survivor, submit picks, or replace Circa’s official rules, schedule, or deadlines. Confirm every rule and kickoff with Circa Sports.
Win odds are estimates, not guarantees.
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