Mapping a full NFL survivor pool? The unofficial Circa Survivor 2026 planner covers the Thanksgiving leg and the Christmas leg. It is free to try, and an account saves the build.
Use a consistent unit so your results stay measurable and your risk stays deliberate. The goal is a repeatable decision process, not a one-night sweat.
You're just picking who wins the game. That's it! Like choosing which team you think is better.
Full Explanation
A moneyline bet is the simplest type of bet. You pick which team will win. No point spreads, no complications.
💡 Example
Chiefs are -150, Bills are +130. If you bet $150 on Chiefs and they win, you get $100 profit. Bet $100 on Bills and win, you get $130 profit.
See It In Action
Scenario
Chiefs vs Bills
Outcome
Chiefs win 27-24
Result
Chiefs bettors win, Bills bettors lose
Pro Tips
→Negative numbers = favorite (bet more to win less)
→Positive numbers = underdog (bet less to win more)
→Great for games where you have a strong opinion on the winner
Related terms
Point Spread (ATS)
beginner
The favorite has to win by MORE than a certain number. It's like giving the underdog a head start!
Full Explanation
Point spread betting evens out the competition. The favorite must win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than the spread OR win outright. If the margin lands exactly on the number, it's called a PUSH - nobody wins, nobody loses, and you get your money back.
💡 Example
Chiefs -7 vs Bills +7. Chiefs win by 8+? Chiefs cover. Chiefs win by 6 or less? Bills cover. Chiefs win by EXACTLY 7? That's a PUSH - bets are refunded.
See It In Action
Scenario
Chiefs -7 vs Bills +7
Outcome
Chiefs win 28-21 (by exactly 7)
Result
PUSH! Both sides get their money back.
Pro Tips
→ATS = Against The Spread
→Key numbers: 3 and 7 are most common margins in football
→A push on a parlay removes that leg (3-team becomes 2-team)
Related terms
Totals (Over/Under)
beginner
You're guessing if both teams together will score MORE or LESS than a certain number. Like guessing how many cookies are in a jar!
Full Explanation
Bet on whether the combined final score will be over or under a set number. You're not picking a winner - just whether it's a high-scoring or low-scoring game.
💡 Example
Chiefs vs Bills, Total: 48.5. Combined score of 52? OVER wins. Combined score of 45? UNDER wins.
See It In Action
Scenario
Total set at 48.5
Outcome
Final: Chiefs 31, Bills 24 = 55 total
Result
OVER wins!
Pro Tips
→Weather can influence totals (wind/rain may suppress scoring — severity and market pricing matter)
→Consider both offenses AND defenses
→Overtime counts toward the total
Related terms
First Half Bets
intermediate
Same bets as regular ones, but only the first half counts! After halftime, your bet is done.
Full Explanation
These work exactly like regular spreads, totals, and moneylines - but they only apply to the first half of the game.
💡 Example
Chiefs 1H -3.5 means they need to be winning by 4+ at halftime. 1H Over 24 means both teams need 25+ combined points by halftime.
See It In Action
Scenario
1H Over 24
Outcome
Halftime: Chiefs 17, Bills 10 = 27
Result
OVER wins! (Second half doesn't matter)
Pro Tips
→Good for teams that start fast or slow
→Weather impact is less predictable for first halves
→Study teams' first-half tendencies
Second Half Bets
intermediate
Bets that only count what happens AFTER halftime. Like a whole new game starting!
Full Explanation
These bets are graded only on what happens in the second half (and overtime if applicable). First half score doesn't count.
💡 Example
2H Chiefs -2 means the Chiefs need to outscore the Bills by 3+ in the second half alone.
Pro Tips
→Lines often come out during halftime
→Consider fatigue and coaching adjustments
→Great if you're watching the game unfold
Parlay
intermediate
A parlay is like stringing Christmas lights together. If ONE light breaks, they ALL go out. But if they all work? Extra bright! More bets = more risk = more reward.
Full Explanation
A parlay combines multiple bets into one. ALL selections must win for the parlay to pay out. The payout is higher because the risk is higher.
💡 Example
3-team parlay: Chiefs -7, Bills/Dolphins Over 48, Ravens ML. All 3 must hit. $100 could pay $600+.
See It In Action
Scenario
3-team parlay at +600
Outcome
2 legs win, 1 loses
Result
Entire parlay loses. No partial payout.
Pro Tips
→Higher payouts but lower probability
→A push (tie) usually reduces the parlay to fewer legs
→Correlated parlays (related outcomes) often restricted
Related terms
Teaser
intermediate
It's like a parlay with training wheels! You get extra points on every pick, but the payout is less. Makes it easier to win, but you don't win as much.
Full Explanation
A teaser lets you adjust point spreads or totals in your favor by 6, 6.5, or 7 points (football). Like parlays, all legs must win.
💡 Example
6-point teaser: Chiefs -7 becomes Chiefs -1. Bills +3 becomes Bills +9. Both must cover these adjusted lines.
See It In Action
Scenario
2-team 6-pt teaser
Outcome
Chiefs -7 → -1 (they win by 3) ✓ | Bills +3 → +9 (lose by 7) ✓
Result
Teaser wins!
Pro Tips
→Pricing varies by sportsbook, sport, point adjustment, and selected spreads. Compare both the teased numbers and the payout before betting.
→In football, teaser value depends heavily on which key numbers the adjusted spread crosses; extra points alone do not guarantee a favorable price.
→Most commonly used in football because of common scoring margins (3 and 7)
Related terms
Round Robin
advanced
Instead of one big parlay where everything must win, you make a bunch of smaller parlays from your picks. Some can lose and you can still win something!
Full Explanation
A round robin creates multiple parlay combinations from your selections. Pick 4 teams? You could make six 2-team parlays, four 3-team parlays, and one 4-team parlay.
💡 Example
Round robin with A, B, C, D creates: AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD (six 2-teamers). If 3 of 4 hit, you still win some parlays!
Pro Tips
→Costs more upfront (multiple bets)
→Provides a safety net compared to straight parlays
→Good for when you like several picks equally
If Bet
advanced
IF your first bet wins, THEN your second bet automatically happens. Like saying 'if I finish my dinner, I get dessert.'
Full Explanation
An if bet places wagers sequentially. If the first bet wins, a predetermined amount goes to the next bet. If the first bet loses, the chain stops.
💡 Example
If-bet: $100 on Chiefs -7, then $100 on Bills ML. Chiefs lose? Only out $100. Chiefs win? Bills bet is automatically placed.
Pro Tips
→Order matters - put your most confident pick first
→Limits your exposure compared to parlays
→Winnings from bet 1 can fund bet 2
Action Reverse
advanced
Two if-bets going in opposite directions. It's like having a backup plan for your backup plan!
Full Explanation
An action reverse (or reverse bet) is essentially two if-bets - one starting with selection A, one starting with selection B. Provides action on both regardless of which wins first.
💡 Example
Reverse on Chiefs and Bills: If Chiefs wins → Bills bet activates. If Bills wins → Chiefs bet activates. You get action both ways.
Pro Tips
→More expensive than a single if-bet
→Guarantees you get multiple bets in play
→Best when you strongly like both selections
Related terms
Prop Bets
intermediate
Betting on the little things that happen IN the game - not who wins, but stuff like 'will this player score?' or 'how many yards will they run?'
Full Explanation
Proposition bets are wagers on specific events within a game, not tied to the final outcome. Can be player-based, team-based, or game-based.
💡 Example
Patrick Mahomes Over 285.5 passing yards. Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer. Total sacks in game Over 4.5.
Pro Tips
→Research individual matchups and trends
→Weather impacts passing props heavily
→Game script matters - blowouts affect playing time
Related terms
Futures
intermediate
Betting on something that won't happen for a long time - like who wins the NFL Championship or MVP before the season even starts!
Full Explanation
Futures are long-term bets on outcomes determined weeks or months in the future. Your money is tied up until the event concludes.
💡 Example
Chiefs to win NFL Championship at +450 (bet before season). Lamar Jackson MVP at +800.
Pro Tips
→Odds change throughout the season
→Shop around - futures odds vary widely
→Consider hedging if your team makes deep playoff run
Related terms
Live/In-Game Betting
intermediate
Betting WHILE the game is happening! The odds keep changing based on what's going on. Fast and exciting!
Full Explanation
Live betting allows wagers during the game with constantly updating odds. Lines shift based on score, time remaining, momentum, and other factors.
💡 Example
Chiefs down 14-0 early? Their live spread might move from -7 to +3. Jump in if you think they'll rally.
Pro Tips
→Odds move fast - be decisive
→Watch the game; don't bet blind
→Great for reacting to injuries or momentum shifts
Section review
Quick check: Bet types
0/3 answered
1.You bet the Chiefs −7. They win 28–21 (by exactly 7). What happens?
2.A moneyline bet is mainly about…
3.In a parlay, how many legs must win for the ticket to cash?
Visual learner? Watch the under-one-minute lessons. Looking up one word? Use the full A–Z.
A wager or betting interest in an event. In some sportsbook rules, "action" can also describe whether a wager remains valid despite a listed-player or starting-pitcher change.
"Which book are you on? Mine still has it at minus six and a half."
Term quiz
Check yourself: Book
0/3 answered
1.A book is…
2.Why does the same game often carry different numbers at different books?
3.How does a book aim to make money?
Every game and every price is built so the house keeps a small slice over time. You can absolutely win tonight — the edge is about what happens across thousands of bets, and it never takes a night off.
"You take a $25 no-sweat on a moneyline. It loses. The book returns a $25 bonus bet, not $25 cash."
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: No-sweat bet
0/3 answered
1.A no-sweat bet is…
2.You take a $25 no-sweat on a moneyline. It loses. What does the lesson say you get?
3.What is the catch on a no-sweat promo?
The sportsbook's fee for taking your bet. That's how they make money!
The commission the sportsbook charges on bets. Built into the odds. In loving memory of Vigtoria — "Vig" the Goody Girl — a beloved English Bulldog who carried the name with grace.
▸ Expert note / how it's calculatedReviewed 2026-07-17
American odds → implied probability:
Negative odds: probability = |odds| / (|odds| + 100)
−150 → 150 / 250 = 60.0%
Positive odds: probability = 100 / (odds + 100)
+130 → 100 / 230 ≈ 43.48%
These prices include vig, so both sides of a market usually sum to more than 100%. Use No-Vig Fair Value to normalize.
American odds ↔ implied probability conversion — Industry-standard mapping: negative odds |o|/(|o|+100); positive odds 100/(o+100). Used throughout sportsbook pricing.
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Implied probability
0/3 answered
1.Implied probability is…
2.Convert −150 to an implied probability.
3.Why do the two sides of a market usually add up to more than 100%?
−150 means risk $150 to win $100. +130 means risk $100 to win $130.
"Hold" can mean the theoretical margin embedded in posted odds or the sportsbook's realized revenue as a percentage of handle. Those are related but not identical.
"A two-way market priced at −110 on both sides contains a theoretical margin, while a sportsbook's monthly hold is based on actual revenue divided by handle."
▸ Expert note / how it's calculatedReviewed 2026-07-17
Theoretical hold (market overround) comes from odds that imply more than 100% combined probability. Realized hold = sportsbook revenue ÷ handle over a period — it depends on results, not just posted prices. Do not treat a 4.5% two-way overround as a guarantee the book keeps 4.5% of every handle dollar that day.
Sportsbook handle and hold terminology — Industry usage: handle = total amount wagered; hold can mean theoretical margin in odds or realized revenue ÷ handle. Context decides which meaning applies.
Proportional (multiplicative) de-vig / normalization — Simplest two-way fair-probability method: divide each implied probability by the sum of all implied probabilities so outcomes sum to 100%. Alternative methods (additive, Shin, power) exist; this page documents the proportional method only.
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Hold
0/3 answered
1.Hold is…
2.Two bettors each risk $110 on opposite sides at -110. What is the book's theoretical hold?
3.Per the American Gaming Association, what was U.S. commercial sportsbooks' hold in 2025?
If both sides of a bet add up to more than 100% chance, that extra is overround — the book's cushion.
The amount by which the implied probabilities of all outcomes add up to more than 100%. It is one way to express the bookmaker's built-in margin.
▸ Expert note / how it's calculatedReviewed 2026-07-17
Overround = (sum of implied probabilities − 1) × 100%. It measures theoretical margin in the posted market, not realized profit.
Proportional (multiplicative) de-vig / normalization — Simplest two-way fair-probability method: divide each implied probability by the sum of all implied probabilities so outcomes sum to 100%. Alternative methods (additive, Shin, power) exist; this page documents the proportional method only.
Sportsbook handle and hold terminology — Industry usage: handle = total amount wagered; hold can mean theoretical margin in odds or realized revenue ÷ handle. Context decides which meaning applies.
Related terms
What the odds might look like if the book took no cut — a fair coin-flip split of the market's prices.
▸ Expert note / how it's calculatedReviewed 2026-07-17
Two-sided proportional de-vig (simplified method used on this page):
Favorite −180 → 180/(180+100) = 64.29% implied
Underdog +155 → 100/(155+100) = 39.22% implied
Total = 103.51%
Favorite fair = 64.29 / 103.51 = 62.11%
Underdog fair = 39.22 / 103.51 = 37.89%
Convert fair probabilities back to American odds for "fair prices." Alternative de-vig methods (additive, Shin, power) can produce different fair splits; this page documents proportional normalization only.
Proportional (multiplicative) de-vig / normalization — Simplest two-way fair-probability method: divide each implied probability by the sum of all implied probabilities so outcomes sum to 100%. Alternative methods (additive, Shin, power) exist; this page documents the proportional method only.
American odds ↔ implied probability conversion — Industry-standard mapping: negative odds |o|/(|o|+100); positive odds 100/(o+100). Used throughout sportsbook pricing.
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: No-vig fair value
0/3 answered
1.No-vig fair value is…
2.A market of −180 / +155 implies 64.3% and 39.2%. What do you do next?
3.Why compare your estimate to the fair number rather than the posted price?
The favorite gives points; the underdog gets a head start.
A handicap applied to the favorite so both sides have roughly equal juice. Favorite must win by more than the number; dog can lose by less (or win outright) and still cover.
"Chiefs −7 vs Bills +7. Land on exactly 7? Push — money back."
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Point spread
0/3 answered
1.A point spread is…
2.Kansas City is −7 and wins 27 to 23. What happens to the two spread tickets?
3.How many ways can an underdog cash a spread ticket?
A spread with no ties allowed. Half lines can never land exactly, whole lines refund a push, and quarter lines quietly split your bet in two so you can win half or lose half.
A spread format, born in soccer, that eliminates the draw using half- and quarter-point lines — and on quarter lines splits your stake across the two nearest lines, refunding any pushed half.
"Bet Chiefs -3, line moves to -7, bet Bills +7. If Chiefs win by 4, 5, or 6, you win BOTH bets!"
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Middle
0/3 answered
1.A middle happens when…
2.You hold KC −2 at one book and MIA +4 at another. Which final margins middle?
3.What is the usual cost when the result misses the middle?
Bet both sides of a two-way ticket so you cash either way. That is the whole point of a hedge: you lock in a win no matter who wins, instead of riding one ticket all the way.
Placing a bet on the opposite side so that either outcome pays you a known result. A true two-outcome hedge locks in a win either way once stakes and prices cover both results — you trade max upside for certainty on both outcomes.
"You hold Bears Super Bowl futures at +900. In the Super Bowl you hedge with Bills moneyline at +300. Both tickets are the hedge math — Bears win or Bills win, one side cashes and you walk with locked profit. The board may still show Bears -7 as the favorite; that spread is how the game is framed, not a third ticket."
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Hedge
0/3 answered
1.To hedge is to…
2.You hold $100 on the Bears at +900 and add $100 on the Bills moneyline at +300. What do the two outcomes return?
3.What are you giving up by hedging?
The book will sell you a different hook. Move the number, the price moves with it.
A spread or total that is not the main number, posted at a different price.
Betting the other side. The old desk line still teaches it: "Nobody ever lost a nickel betting against the intelligence of the American public" — not a license to auto-fade, but a reminder that the crowd is often late, loud, and overpriced.
"Eighty percent of tickets pile onto the favorite. The fade lesson is not "dogs always win" — it is the classic: nobody ever lost a nickel betting against the intelligence of the American public. Take the other side only when the price still pays you for being contrarian; fading a bad number is still a bad bet."
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Fade
0/3 answered
1.To fade something is to…
2.The desk proverb says nobody ever lost a nickel betting against the intelligence of the American public. What is the correct fade-the-public lesson?
3.Is fading a bad tipster automatically profitable?
When someone's super confident. "This is a lock!" Still can lose though.
A bet someone considers guaranteed. (Hint: no bet is a lock!)
"You bet Under 47.5. Score is 44-3 with 10 seconds left. Garbage time TD makes it 54. Bad beat."
Term quiz
Check yourself: Bad beat
0/3 answered
1.A bad beat is…
2.Tennessee closed −4.5. Buffalo led 16–15 with 16 seconds left, then the Music City Miracle made it 22–16 Tennessee. What died?
3.What is the responsible response to a bad beat?
In gambling, buried means you're so deep in the hole that getting even isn't realistic. And when you're getting buried, there's only one way to go if you keep playing — and it's not upward. Any gambling counts: tables, cards, horses, or a betting slate.
What casual fans are betting — favorites, overs, stars. The fade proverb about the American public is aimed at this pile of tickets, not a free pass to bet every dog.
"Public money is all over the favorite and the line hasn't moved an inch — somebody sharp is on the other side. That is why the fade lesson exists: the crowd is often wrong, but only the price decides if fading them is worth a nickel."
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Public money
0/3 answered
1.Public money refers to…
2.Public money is heavy on one side but the line has not moved. What does that suggest?
3.Does betting against the public work automatically?
70% on Team A but the line moves toward Team B? Sharp money on B!
Beating the closing market on the number or price you bet — a better spread/total, a better American price on the same outcome, or an improvement in no-vig probability terms.
"You bet Chiefs −6 and the market closes Chiefs −7 (spread CLV). You bet Chiefs −110 and the same outcome closes −125 (price CLV)."
▸ Expert note / how it's calculatedReviewed 2026-07-17
CLV can mean:
• Better spread number than the close
• Better total than the close
• Better price (American odds) on the same outcome
• Improvement vs close after no-vig conversion
Examples:
You bet Chiefs −6; market closes Chiefs −7 → you beat the closing spread by one point.
You bet Chiefs −110; same outcome closes −125 → you also beat the closing price.
CLV is a useful long-run process signal, not proof that any individual bet was correct.
American odds ↔ implied probability conversion — Industry-standard mapping: negative odds |o|/(|o|+100); positive odds 100/(o+100). Used throughout sportsbook pricing.
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Closing line value
0/3 answered
1.Closing line value means…
2.You bet Kansas City −6 and the game closes −7. Did you beat the close?
3.Does positive CLV on one bet prove that bet was right?
Math that estimates whether a price is good or bad long-term — not a promise that today's bet wins.
"At +120 with a $100 stake and 48% estimated win chance, EV ≈ +$5.60 per bet."
▸ Expert note / how it's calculatedReviewed 2026-07-17
EV = (win probability × net profit) − (loss probability × stake)
Worked example at +120 with a $100 stake (wins $120 profit):
If your estimated win probability is 48%:
EV = (0.48 × $120) − (0.52 × $100) = $57.60 − $52.00 = $5.60
That is a modeled expected return of $5.60 per $100 wagered. EV quality depends entirely on the quality of the estimated probability — bad estimates produce misleading EV.
Expected value of a binary wager — EV = (p_win × net profit) − (p_lose × stake). Standard decision-theory expectation for a single-outcome bet.
American odds ↔ implied probability conversion — Industry-standard mapping: negative odds |o|/(|o|+100); positive odds 100/(o+100). Used throughout sportsbook pricing.
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Expected value
0/3 answered
1.Expected value measures…
2.At +120 with a 48% win estimate on $100, what is the EV?
3.A bet has positive EV and loses. What does that tell you?
Doing your homework to figure out which bets are good.
"Book A has Chiefs -6.5, Book B has Chiefs -7. Always take the -6.5!"
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Line shopping
0/3 answered
1.Line shopping is…
2.At the same moment Book A posts KC −6.5 and Book B posts KC −7. For a KC backer, which is better?
3.Why does line shopping matter more than it looks?
Someone who tries to predict when betting lines will change and bets right before they do. Some use computer programs to bet faster than humans can.
A bettor who attempts to anticipate and capitalize on line movements. Many move players employ automated bots to place bets quickly when lines move. **Caution:** Most offshore sportsbooks treat bot usage as a violation of their terms of service and may void bets or close accounts if a player is caught using a bot.
▸ Expert note / how it's calculatedReviewed 2026-07-17
ROI = (total profit ÷ total amount wagered) × 100%. It is sample-dependent: short streaks can look elite or terrible. Pair ROI with sample size, closing-line value, and variance context.
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: ROI
0/3 answered
1.ROI is…
2.$10,000 wagered across a season with $500 profit is what ROI?
3.A bettor reports 40% ROI over 25 bets. What is the right reaction?
When a sportsbook is slow to update a number, the price you see may be stale. It can still move or be rejected before your bet is accepted — a stale line is not guaranteed value and not a command to bet.
"After confirmed news, most books move a fictional Team A from -3 to -5, while one book still displays -3. That remaining -3 may be stale — check the timestamp, the market and selection, the book, and whether the price is still available when your bet is accepted."
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Stale line
0/3 answered
1.A stale line is…
2.After confirmed news, most books move Team A from -3 to -5, but one book still displays -3. That -3 is…
3.Before acting on a possibly stale number, what should you check?
Betting more because you're losing. BAD IDEA! This is how bankrolls disappear.
"He lost the early game and started chasing — three more bets in before halftime."
Term quiz
Check yourself: Chasing
0/3 answered
1.Chasing means…
2.Why is chasing so dangerous?
3.The lesson uses Owning Mahowny — a man who will not walk away while ahead. What is the lesson?
A coin that landed heads five times in a row is not "due" for tails — the next flip is still 50/50. Games do not remember your last bet.
The false belief that independent results are "due" to even out — that past losses, wins, or streaks change the odds of the next outcome.
"After four straight losses, betting bigger because a win "has to be coming" is the gambler's fallacy. Each game settles on its own; your record does not move the odds."
Related terms
You and a friend bet each other directly. No book takes a cut, but no book makes the loser pay either.
"At a book, the same pick at -110 risks $22 to win $20. As a side bet at even money, it is $20 against $20 — no vig, and the only guarantee of payment is the other person's word."
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Side Bet
0/3 answered
1.A side bet is…
2.The same pick costs $22 to win $20 at a -110 book. As a side bet at even money it is…
3.What is the main risk of a side bet?
You keep winning and it feels like you cannot miss. Fun to ride — but a streak is a record of what already happened, not a reason the next bet wins.
A game whose result has been deliberately manipulated — players, officials, or insiders losing on purpose or shaving points so that someone with inside knowledge can bet on it.
"The 1919 "Black Sox": eight Chicago White Sox players were accused of conspiring with gamblers to lose the World Series to Cincinnati. All eight were banned from baseball in 1921, the day after a jury acquitted them."
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Fixed Game
0/3 answered
1.A fixed game is…
2.What happened to the eight "Black Sox" players after the 1919 World Series?
3.Why do books watch for lopsided money with no public news?
Going opposite of what most people are betting. Sometimes smart!
"A 3-team round robin "by 2s" creates 3 two-team parlays; include the 3-teamer and you have 4 parlays total. A 4-team round robin: 6 two-team, 4 three-team, or 11 parlays combining both sizes."
Related terms
Term quiz
Check yourself: Round robin
0/3 answered
1.What does a round robin do with your selected teams?
2.A 3-team round robin "by 2s" creates…
3.From 4 teams, how many parlays does an all-combination round robin build?
Like two if-bets running forward AND backward at once — spreads your risk across both orders.
Strip the hold from a two-way market to get fair probabilities that sum to 100%.
Side A implied (raw)52.4%
Side B implied (raw)52.4%
Hold / overround4.76%
Fair P(A)50.0%
Fair P(B)50.0%
50%
50%
Payout calculator
How much you profit and what the book returns if your ticket cashes.
Profit if win$100.00
Total return (stake + profit)$210.00
Loss if lose−$110.00
Expected value (EV)
If your true win rate differs from the price, EV estimates long-run profit per bet.
Market implied52.4%
Your edge (pts)+2.6 pp
EV ($)$5.00
EV (% of stake)+5.00%
EV = (p × profit) − ((1 − p) × stake). +EV does not mean this ticket wins — it means the price is good over many bets.
CLV examples
Closing line value: compare the number you got to the final market. Positive CLV is the gold-standard process signal.
Your implied52.4%
Close implied55.6%
CLV (implied pts)+3.17 pp
Example: bet −110, close −125 → market got shorter on your side → positive CLV (you beat the closer).
Section review
Quick check: Use the tools
0/3 answered
1.At −110 with a $110 stake, profit if you win is…
2.Two sides both −110. After vig removal, each fair probability is…
3.CLV calculators compare your price to…
Beginner cards stay plain-English. Advanced entries may include an expandable expert note with formulas and worked examples. Source notes describe methodology; we do not invent academic citations. Last-reviewed dates appear on technical entries when maintained.
American odds ↔ implied probability conversion
Industry-standard mapping: negative odds |o|/(|o|+100); positive odds 100/(o+100). Used throughout sportsbook pricing.
Simplest two-way fair-probability method: divide each implied probability by the sum of all implied probabilities so outcomes sum to 100%. Alternative methods (additive, Shin, power) exist; this page documents the proportional method only.
Expected value of a binary wager
EV = (p_win × net profit) − (p_lose × stake). Standard decision-theory expectation for a single-outcome bet.
Sportsbook handle and hold terminology
Industry usage: handle = total amount wagered; hold can mean theoretical margin in odds or realized revenue ÷ handle. Context decides which meaning applies.
The Cold Line home-relative spread edge
Production convention in src/lib/nextdown/edgeMath.ts: edgeRaw = modelSpreadHome − marketSpreadHome; negative favors home value, positive favors away value.
Reference year: 2026
⚡ Quick Reference: Understanding Odds
Negative Odds (-150)
Bet $150 to win $100
Positive Odds (+130)
Bet $100 to win $130
Standard Juice (-110)
Bet $110 to win $100 — the extra $10 is the book's cut
